40/70 Benchmark

Seems like an unmanned firehose that really has yet to be pinned down.

Final Call for Messy Wednesday AM Commute Nuisance Level But Allow for Extra Time There are no major changes from the First Call issued on Saturday night. This will be a light, nuisance level event that willl change to rain, but nonetheless, it will be slippery so plan accordingly. Synoptic Overview As is often the case, there will be a nominal price to pay for transitioning the pattern from the very cold conditions of last week to the milder stretch over the days to come. Indeed, the retreating arctic cold will remain in place long enough to ensure a wintery start to mid week precipitation, as implied last week. A modest parcel of energy will be weakening on approach as it breaks off from the amplifying western trough and around the periphery of the building Western Atlantic ridge in response to the deep Western trough. Note the compressed flow between the departing polar vortex lobe that supplies the cold this weekend and the building western Atlantic ridge that triggers the warm up next week, which will act to shear the approaching wave apart. However, it will deposit a light snowfall over the northern half of the region and thus cause some slight travel delays from Tuesday into Wednesday before it dissipates and warmer air moves in. Anticipated Storm Evolution Mixed precipitation should begin over the western portions of southern New England prior to the onset of the PM commute, by approximately 4pm. Overspreading the balance of the area through the early evening. And into the overnight. Before beginning to taper off and transition to an icy mixture and rainfall during the predawn hours of Wednesday. Precipitation should become more showery and sporadic in nature prior to the AM commute across the majority of the area. However, there will undoubtedly be slippery spots that will remain, especially over the higher terrain north of the Mass pike. There will be a lengthy break in precipitation during the day on Wednesday before a more significant round begins by Wednesday night, which will be primarily in the form of rain across the area. FINAL CALL: First Call issued Saturday January 20th at 9pm. Stay vigilant throughout the week for updates on more important potential Sunday night into Monday-

Right...

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/final-call-for-messy-wednesday-am.html

Yes...you need it to: A Phase fast enough B Far enough south Today's trends have been later and farther north...both bad.

For you, no.

I'm guessing the GFS is phasing the N stream in later and the GEM/ICON are doing so too late, period.

I don't buy a whiff.

Well, a bit warmer, anyway

Yea, GFS Blows.

I find myself getting roped into that sometimes...especially during the fall if cane season blows....but by mid-late February, I plan my escape by way of fantasy draft prep if winter blows.

EPS:

I would consider that OP GFS more qualitatively for now.

GEFS and GEPS seemed very averse to the Coastal plane.

EPS seems to support the GFS OP.

Wow, the EURO really sucked for Sunday-Monday...yikes.

GFS

Complementary February HECS, hopefully.

Last year: Index Value Predicted '22-'23 DM Value Range Actual '22-'23 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -1.27 to -1.57 -1.89 Biased .32 positive Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) -.35 to -.65 -.68 Biased .03 positive ENSO SON -1.0 to -1.2 EMI: .3 to .5 (slightly east-hybrid) SON -1.0 (Verified) Verified +1 Modoki Error (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) +.30 to +.60 -.43 Biased .73 positive Arctic Oscillation (AO) -.15 to -.45 -.38 Verified North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) +.15 to +.45 +.23 Verified Index Value Predicted '23-'24 DM Value Range Actual '23-'24 DM Value Forecast Error Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) -.30 to -.60 ? ? Perennial North American Pattern (PNA) +.15 to +.45 ? ? ENSO OND 1.7-1.9 ONI EMI: .6 - .8 (West Tilt Basin-Wide) ? ? (J-M) East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) +.10 to -.20 ? ? Arctic Oscillation (AO) -.30 to -.60 ? ? North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) +.10 to -.20 ? ?

TBH, my last few NAO/AO seasonal forecasts have been pretty good, which is ironic because my overall calls have (especially in terms of snowfall) regressed. When I was going better, I struggled in the polar domain.

2004-2005?