40/70 Benchmark

Seems about right to me.

Funny, I guess 1979-1980 technically counts as an el Nino now, but I didn't use it. I feel like that is a recent development due to changing climo.

Finally read this after emerging from my outlook sabbatical....agree with the outlook...right down to strong el Nino acting moderate. But I think your ENSO orientation is off....not sure how you have 91-92 as a Modoki. It certainly was not...read mine and you will see why, as I spend alot of time on that el Nino.

Hopefully we can use that for a storm total map come February.

22.8/22

It doesn't matter for this year. Solar wind and geomagnetic energy don't really get going for about a year after solar peak....its not instant. Like most things in weather, there is a lag. It would likely be important for next year, though.

I'm going to convert all of those error percentages to SD in fairly short order.

Well, no coincidence that my 10th annual outlook comes just 4 months prior to the 10th anniversary of my late dad's passing. The effort is dedicated to him. He would always ask me about the weather in an effort to redirect me when I was upset because he knew that was always a safe place for me. What I have learned is that while you can not cure addiction, you can adapt, and evolve in order to foster the insight necessary to redirect that energy away from destructive activities and towards more constructive channels. That being said, I hope you folks enjoy the effort, as this place was an invaluable escape for me during some of the darkest periods of my life. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/winter-23-24-will-be-lesson-in.html

Thanks...going to include it this year, as it is part of a very strong consensus.

Kinda daring with smart phones and social media these days....

Interesting that the spread is for more negative NAO in December, and its a large spread for such short term.

@Stormchaserchuck1Do you have the SST plot that goes with your forumula?

Clearly the trend is for +NAO December and negative NAO February, but can anyone elaborate on how exactly to interpret this graphic? Does the bar extension represent spread?

It will hit 2.0 in the dailies, but not ONI.

The best seasonal forecasters are wrong significantly more than they are right....I am not trying to shit on him.

That is text-book eastern pants tent....that map is higher-end ceiling like potential.

This is why Roundy is behind the curve with respect to this event IMO....he is an expert on yesterday's climate. The Belicheck of the ENSO community.

Yea, we agree for the most part.....winter won't be very cold and el Nino has not peaked, but it is close IMO. The major WWB is to the west....the one coming east isn't that big of a deal. This is the final push. The thrust of warmer subsurface is still mainly west IMO.

NBD, just uploaded via cell.

Strange...I get them on my cell, though.

Is it just me, or are these images not showing up for others? Both desktop and laptop....

This is accounted for in assuming a range of 1.7 to 1.9 ONI, IMO....we NEED another push to get that-

12/2...say 2pmish.