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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    The point isn't that I expect to to be lethally accurate, but that all of the global guidance is consistently signaling that this isn't going to be a typical blow-torch stronger el Nino. About as much as you can ask for...could they all fail miserably, sure, but would we feel better if they all photocopied 1997-1998?
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    My guess is that the EURO was led astray by the same issue that killed my forecast....a fraudulent warm ENSO regime. I feel like we are adjusting to that better and this event is appreciably stronger, as you have mentioned. Are the coldest models too cold? Probably, but I just want snow...I don't need Boston Harbor to freeze over.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, these...
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    What I like is that the fact that they signal cold bodes very well for avoiding a non-starter type of winter....odds are, we can't overcome a warm start and average +temps and NAO for DM in the aggregate, but will anyone care if we accumulate heavy seasonal totals?
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Where do you generate those Nino images?
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have said all along those December strat shenanigans aren't going to pay immediate dividends and likely get pushed back.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense considering how I expect December to unfold....look at the EURO .....+NAO. Cohen is just having an impulsive outburst, which people are prone to do on social media.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Someone run a composite of 1966, 1969, 1987 and 2003...it probably looks like the Euro.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree with this...good post. This, like the PDO analogs, is confirmation that this winter will be decided within the polar domain.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not really....98-99 was awful, 2016-2017 and 83-84 were meh.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was expecting that.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what I point out in his Twitter thread and he never addressed it.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. This is why I feel like we will also have an active N stream this winter.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Webb is completely unhinged.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, no one is going super-cold. That said, sign me up for 1965, 1968 and 2004 from that composite.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that is consistent with my findings...not sure where he is coming from with this.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Apparently 1997 was a modoki because it had a high MEI.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    That has to be the dumbest comment I have ever heard from a pro met. The irony of him ranting about JB having an agenda....
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    This one is not intense and is not close with them.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe specifically for the PNA...
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Factors like the sun matter more in weak and basin wide events.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    The vp works out just fine in my experience and when it doesn't, there are reasons why. Nothing operates in a vacuum.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree with you that the forcing doesn't matter....at least in stronger events. But obviously +PNA seasons are more difficult to come by in the heart of a multi decadal cold phase.
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