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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Reading about that 11/15/67 event kinda gives me 12/13/07 reverberations....
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    That aligns with my thoughts from the novel.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would watch for a big storm around the holidays, interior focus.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Notice how quiet he has gotten? Heavy, heavy discomfort.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    My thoughts on December have always been that the warm stretches will outweigh the cold, but no one will mistake this for December 2015 or even 2014...it will snow.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    This almost has a '95 vibe to it....get one measurable snow event before December closes.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    December should still get warm, but this fall seems "different"......I am really optimistic about this season. Weenie ob is that wintery outcomes seem primed to overachieve.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow, I had never heard of that event before....
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    There were some guys I was going toe-to-toe with all summer and fall that were hell bent on a mega el Nino....they have all capitulated at this point. I honestly think Webber and Roundy are the only two going down with the ship.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think that is true, but the ONI has also clearly run astray due to the immense warmth around the globe....this is why I think the moderate intensity implied by the RONI is the most reasonable compromise. Its not weak, but I wouldn't call it strong, either.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is what I like about Cohen....he always admits when he is wrong and is very approachable...you DM that guy and he responds as soon as he sees it. Some these guys act so condescending and their shit stinks as badly as everyone else's.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    No one is infallible, so I will knock him. Frankly, I think he has looked like a fool with how obstinate he has been this fall. Everyone is wrong at some point and he needs to just admit that he was off a bit and move on.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is like calling the Blizzard of '78 an analog every time it snows.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not to mentioned 91-92 had Pinatubo effect.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    @griteaterLove your stuff, man...you have to be my #1 source for outlook graphics lol
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looked to me like most of the deeply negative NAO seasons were ascending shortly after solar min.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    1957 is great from an ENSO and solar standpoint, but I think it will be a little less blocky on average....the huge difference is the extra tropical Pacific....this is why I like 1965 better. 1957-1958 is the best solar analog, though....ascending damn near max.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    If we get to mid January with a Vin Diesl PV, then I will be worried. However, I am confident that that will not be the case.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Could be later.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, and I have....at very, very great length.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Check out the three super el Nino events....++PDO. No coincidence...probably why 1972 was held in check, at least to a degree.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh...to a point. However, the PDO can either constructively or deconstructivity interfere with ENSO when they are not in sync. Its part of the overarching system that is keeping this event in check.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I Could see January going either way.....I also don't think December will be a disaster, but not great.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Definitely hybrid/basin-wide, and those have a high degree of variance. Its actually one of the better EMI analogs, but it was much better coupled and evolved far differently in the polar domain than I expect this year to...due to differences with respect to volcanic eruptions, solar cycle and degree of el Nino expression.
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