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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I will be pretty suprised if we don't see a SSW, though it certainly looks as though it will not be in December.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, moderately strong Maritime forcing also favors +NAO. Watch the +NAO go bye-bye in a few weeks.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like the GFS suite is just more of a PV elongation, whereas the European decimates it.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    The MJO is doing that.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like the QPF max is also sometimes associated with the mid level deformation. Not always..
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    At Kevin's house it's easy....go sleet.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Eh....like I said, case-by-case. They can be better qualitative tools than qualitative, but when your method will fail is in a big coastal with potent deformation areas....having the mid levels be a prolific driver of snowfall is an entirely different ballgame because the models greatly struggle with mid level dynamics....you will see the vast majority of QPF focused with the low level deformation when the heaviest amounts actually fall near the modeled NW gradient, underneath the best mid level CSI.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...thanks. I literally had that a$$ backwards. Like I said....middle age and the offseason are a bad combo. I think the proprietary NARCAN maps from F5 are some sort of modified Kuchera product. There are a few instances when Kuchera can be fairly accurate when snow growth is ideal in a deformation zone, but that is not frequent...that is what I was thinking of.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its can be tricky though because sometimes models can underestimate height crashes with a rapidly intensifying system and that ideology can back-fire. You have to view each system individually, but more often than not, you are right.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get rusty sometimes in the offseason....are you implying Kuchera is best for the marginal events fraught with precipitation type issues?
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like NARCAN and positive depth change maps the best, unless in a deformation area, then you can weight Kuchera much more aggressively.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully DC grabs a few inches....I am anecdotally pulling this out of my rear, but I feel like a plowable December snowfall in DC would a good omen for the rest of winter.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I never expected anything from the Monday deal, so no complaints on that.....I don't expect any snow here until Xmas and even that may be more up and in. It is what it is and you are right people are allowing the bitter IMBY residue to cloud the prism through which they view the rest of the season.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Everyone read December as warm....it really wasn't a difficult call and shouldn't suprise anyone.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I may call out Monday...commute is going to be miserable.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Xmas threat is real.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it will be frigid anywhere...but yea, below average from like DC southward.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I don't expect a particularly cold month in the mean.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I honestly couldn't care any less about this one if I tried....completely disengaged and biding my time until the first system of relevance.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Name one person who didn't expect this? Lol This place is mind numbing.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    It like crying about a lame hurricane season on June 8th.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wasting what? Early to mid December climo blows big ones in most of SNE....always has.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll be on the edge if we make it past NY without an imminent threat. I'm good right now.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    All it would take if for the PV love to be a bit father north, or non existent.
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