40/70 Benchmark

Yea, hopefully that Steve-to Will-to Brett-to Scooter corridor can catch a break for once.

People latch on to hope fostered by a rogue run or two.

Saturday.

18" is too high IMO.

Take a look at that block after the 10 system rides up....I don't see how the next one doesn't go Miller B.

Looks like my first call will need a tweak or ten....

That maybe some cf cj

Agree. 10th is gone, but no way the one after runs into the monster block by that point. That inside runner on the 10 reinforces the block.

Lets get that gradient just north of me.

I only expect 4-8", anyway....the double-digits are ceiling-fantasy.

Wonder if that sucker hole is due to energy translating east to the lead wave late in the game...

I would rather have it, too........definitely makes it easier to have staying power.

This may be a big night of runs....I don't trust the GFS with east coast cyclogenesis and convective intricacies....

Yes...that is what I was recalling ...

You probably would have lost it near the onset of 2/6/78 lol

Messy Mid Week Possible Following Season's First Significant Winter Storm This Weekend Tropics & Polar Domain in Conflict The first weekend of the year promises to be a crucial point of inflection for the the 2023-2024 winter season. Not only will this weekend's impending winter storm have a significant impact on Sunday travel plans, but concurrent with this will be developments in the polar stratosphere that will have important implications on the balance of the winter season. Incidentally, there is now strong agreement amongst guidance that the long awaited split of the polar vortex that has been eagerly anticipated dating back to this past fall (between Christmas and January 8th) will be taking place concurrent with our Sunday snowfall. Despite the fact that a technical SSW may not occur. This is reflected by what is forecasted to be a very disturbed polar domain for the foreseeable future. However, the deep trough that is forecasted to amplify over the Western CONUS this weekend is also forecasted to persist well into the month of January. This is due to the fact that the MJO is forecasted to amplify in phase 4 by mid month. This will only serve to bolster the west coast trough per both the MJO phase 4 January composite: And MJO regression guidance. The synoptic evolution that will follow includes the polar vortex lobe in the vicinity of James Bay initially descending into the western US. A sequence that will reenforce the deep western trough at the same time that a major storm system is ejecting out of the Southwest next week. While primarily rainfall is expected across the region, stay tuned for potential updates over the course of the next week for updates regarding how this system will interact with the developing NAO block. INITIAL THREAT ASSESSMENT:

Next week could be plowable for S NH, N ORH county and the Berks. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/messy-mid-week-possible-following.html

I mean for a stretch mid month...not the whole season.

That is what I predicted for January....we'll see. I liked 1966, 1987 and 2003 in terms of snowfall distribution. 1966 best match meteorologically speaking.

I think they will....it's like 2007-2008 in terms of sensible weather, but different metoorologically....back then it was very -EPO and +NAO/AO, whereas this time it's -NAO/AO and -PNA.

I never lost power in April 1997...suprised.

Yea, it sucks we are contending with that huge trough out west, but it was always clear there would be some that this year.

I'm not shitting on you.....I just knew I was toast. Like you know your climo down on the s shore....same for me up here.

Look how next week's inside runner augments that huge NAO block via wave breaking and poleward heat flux...that is going to put up one hell of a fight mid month against what will be a very hostile tropics....could be a 2007-2008 like stretch far enough north.

Don't be fooled....it's taking a circuitous route to get there due to the residual cool ENSO GLAAM that continues to offer resistance at times, but this winter is going to offer some downright violent potential once things evolve later this month and into early February. I am not one for hyperbole at this stage of my life, but there just isn't any other way to articulate what I am envisioning.