40/70 Benchmark

That winter actually had a ton of northern stream, at least in March.....I had my snowiest March on record after that Feb SSW.

Funny how everytime @MJO812posts, a weenie gets its buns lol...usually @snowman19 doing the honors.

Followed by another mild week or two as the energy flux rises from the trop to the strat....then its pants off for Feb.

582dm N of Miami

Well, John could do volume II..."The Unintelligible Edition"....

Makes a bit more sense, as it has always seemed too low.

Or just etch a bun into the tombstone.

Aren't you perpetually whining how we haven't had a decent warm core system in decades?

Is it me, or have they adjusted these? I feel like SO was 0.3 and ON was 0.6, whereas now they are 0.4 and 0.8, respectively.

Yea, that's fine....semantics, I guess.....if you would rather view it as the prism between the ONI and MEI/RONI being reflective of competing forces, rather than a limited warm ENSO expression....I can see that.

This is totally fair.

My point is that its ill advised to just consider the Maritime implication of having forcing displaced so far west, while ignoring what that means with respect to the Hadley Cell later in the season...especially when unwilling to concede that the west PAC warm pool does in fact limit the hemispheric expression of el Nino relative to the ONI. That is inconsistent...you could get away with it in 1994 and 2006 because we had a different solar situation and hence a drastically different polar evolution. I am confident that absolutely will not work this season when all is said and done.

2006 is another great example of el Nino having a la Nina flavor, but the difference being the polar domain that year....look how far west that forcing was. It is pretty high on my list of analogs, save for the polar domain. Even that season had a nice stretch in February and March.

I also feel like the "weaker" expression will also allow for a less prominent Aleutian low displaced further to the west during those periods of dateline forcing, as opposed to a season like 1998, that has the other worldly low tucked against the coast and overwhelming the colder MJO phases with that transcendent PAC jet. This is the benefit of having the Walker cell displaced to the west....we have seen the negative of it in Maritime forcing and we will see the benefit later this season. Stronger, Canonical el Nino Hadley Cell Configuration The Modoki el Nino, on the other hand, has a diametrically opposed circulation pattern that weakens said subtropical Pacific jet, which in turn diminishes the Atlantic jet and fosters the development of a cyclonic circulation that sustains negative NAO episodes via said wind-evaporation-SST feedback. This often works in conjunction with western ridging due to the position of the Hadley Cell over the central Pacific. Weak el Nino/Modoki Hadley Cell Configuration

Interesting that I see 2014 also in that list of warmest Decembers, so while I certainly don't expect a repeat of that, a warm December is not prohibitive of decent snowfall season. 2006 and 1968 were also on my list....1958 was, too.

I don't think it will be a cold as if it were to displace on our side of the hemisphere, but the blocking should still have an impact. I agree...I think the coldest periods will be in February when we have periods of EPO/PNA ridging.

That is fair and I see what you mean there....I agree about increased Maritime forcing relative to normal for el Nino, as I also touched on that. But I also believe that its going to lead to longer periods of dateline forcing in lieu having a purely canonical response in the seasonal mean. This is why I specifically stated that I expect volatility this year and it won't a be cold season prime for snowpack retention. The slightly weaker event is also resulting in a cooler, albeit still warm December than 2015, which I think will also help in January and February relative to that season.

I smell a Sci-fi publication....

Yea...its not going to be frigid, but should be cold enough at peak climo.

Locked in. Zero reservations. And yes.....it took me until January to start to know I was in trouble last year, so that doesn't necessarily mean I am going to be right.

I know we have exchanged thoughts about this before, but my hope if that it also entails a more active N stream in addition to mild, Maritime interludes. We may disagree on this, but I don't think its fair to say that it takes nothing away from the strength of el Nino. Perhaps not as much as implied, but when you lessen the Pacific dipole, it doesn't make sense to have every bit as pervasive an ENSO event. Is it as weak as the MEI would imply? Of course not, but I'm not sure how you give ENSO an opposite phase "flavor " and not render it a less proficient a driver than implied by ONI. Its a form of deconstructive interference that partially stifles hemispheric expression. I actually feel as though the RONI represents a sound compromise between the ONI and MEI, which is probably biased low by one determinant.

Let's see what actually happens.

No changes.

@Damage In Tollandpolicy is lol