40/70 Benchmark

Animate or it won't happen.

No...bookmarked. Evident that 1997 probably would have been decent if it weren't so overwhelmingly powerful.

You must be the most prolific bun magnet I have ever seen in my 17+ years on these forums.

Through all of the insanity, the sensible impact remains mundane.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/12/mild-december-continues-with-changes.html

Mild December Continues with Changes Slow to Evolve Maritime Forcing Remains Prevalent The polar vortex has began to recover as expected following the brief period of blocking that occurred near the onset of the month of December. This intensification of the vortex has occurred concurrent with the progression of the MJO into the Maritime region, which was described in last month's Winter Outlook as being the primary reason why December 2023 would be significantly milder and less wintery than analog seasons such as 2009-2010. "Some periods of a stronger PV are likely, especially early on, as implied earlier. This placement is also quite similar to the mean seasonal forcing during the QBO/solar el Nino analog season of 2009-2010, albeit even slightly further to the west as to include more maritime phase 6 involvement": "Which is one of the reasons why the coming season is unlikely to rival that one in terms of consistent cold and record magnitude of blocking/mid Atlantic snows". Note that currently forcing is biased towards the western edge of the above composite, which is consistent with Maritime phase 6. The progression of the MJO through the phases 6-8 for the balance of December will also be accompanied by a Pacific jet extension, as annotated by highly skilled meteorologist John Homenuk. Powerful Jet Extension Marked by +EPO This feature is due to the development of a powerful Gulf of Alaska low that will take shape between now and the holiday period. This regime is redolent of the strong and/or east-based canonical El Niño composite that Eastern Mass Weather asserted would be a prominent feature during the month of December. This confluence of factors will not only mean that the next powerful coastal system scheduled for early next week will also be rain. But that that the balance of the 2023 will finish at least as warm as anticipated (+1 to +3F) and potentially somewhat warmer. However, be that as it may, the notion that the new year will indeed herald in a new weather regime remains unchanged. End of December to Feature Changes & Paradoxical Early January Developments The final week of 2023 should be a period of great flux, both at the surface. But most especially in the stratosphere, as warming should begin to accelerate during the last week of December and culminate in a SSW during the first week of the new year. Tropical forcing should also align closer to the dateline, which is more congruent with the anticipated mean seasonal position. And similar to some of the more notable analog seasons. This will be accompanied by the MJO methodically navigating its way into a relatively meager phase 1 and 2 expression. The late December and early to mid January period promises to be somewhat paradoxical in the sense that the colder pattern triggered by the navigation of tropical forcing back to the general vicinity of the dateline will be countermanded by the energy flux from the troposphere into the stratosphere. This will likely act to truncate the somewhat colder period and lead to yet another mild period during the middle and perhaps latter portion of January, much to the chagrin of frustrated eastern US winter weather aficionados. However, this is a short term trade off for what promises to be a longer term late winter-time bonanza, so to speak. This evolution is endorsed by Dr. Judah Cohen. "It is of my opinion, much of the winter will likely hinge on the nature of this SSW that is predicted to begin the last week of December. I think the models were slow to appreciate the magnitude of the energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Where the energy leaves or diverges it creates cold, low pressure and the westerly winds increase or in this case in the troposphere. Where the energy enters or conerges it creates warm, high pressure and the westerly winds decrease or in this case in the stratosphere. That is why I believe that the weather models both showed a more robust weakening of the PV simultaneously predicting more low pressure and less high latitude blocking in the troposphere and milder temperatures across the continents". More to follow prior to the New Year, or should any winter threats emerge for SNE in the interim.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/12/mild-december-continues-with-changes.html?fbclid=IwAR0ev45sXITT6nmnEbuxjxcgOe96DBIivUC-yID6B4lNvpJeGrjWMrdQe_8

"By the Power of Greyskull, I hereby command you to SELL!!!"

We need Skeletor to sell the team.

Been a lot of "trying" the past several years between the weather and Sox' front office.

Here is a surprise

What are your thoughts on January?

"Snow on the level increased to the height of thy knickers"....

I expected a good bit of phase 6 in December, as well as a brief period of PV flex before it takes a beating, so going pretty much as planned, so far....though as Raindance alluded to, it will definitely be warmer in the N plains than my composite had....tough to capture anomalies of that magnitude on a seasonal/monthly level. Don't get me wrong, I am sure there will some surprises, but no big deviations yet.

Yea, there should be another milder interlude in January before the meat of the season begins.

This, along with occlusion, is one of the reasons I hate Miller A systems....sure, Miller B can hug/cut or occlude...but there is more time for unfavorable developments when they cover that much more ground. Nothing like having all of those nascent mechanics explode into existence right underneath Long Island...much more margin for error. I get that having the N stream phase in too aggressively is the issue here, but just saying....less time to do that if it had developed later.

That is the one that gave me like 20" and ORH 5" hahaha

Good time to waste that track AFIC.

Picked up a trace of snow on the deck...yay

Christine?

It's a decent Pacific analog, but it was descending solar on the heels of Pinatubo, so the pole is very different. I also expect the PNA to be more positive this season, which is working out, so far.

Yea, this won't be 1994-1995.

Yea, the one time it did end up this side it robbed us of the xmas blizzard by phasing in the west.

Yea, that new dollhouse would be toast