40/70 Benchmark

Pacific is nothing like last year, though.

We'll see what happens. I have learned not to be eager to pound my chest and spike footballs...a decade or seasonal forecasts is humbling. I am certainly comfortable with my pre season thoughts, at this point.

We are going to see another el Nino next year IMO....since 1950, all there cases of el Nino following 3 consecutive cold ENSO events doubled up on warm ENSO .

The NAO verified last December...the Pacific negated it.

I agree with you on the daily analysis. ...drives me nuts lol

2010 is a great overall analog, but I don't love if for the polar domain due to the very low solar...NAO won't be as extreme, which isn't saying much.

Yea, but I would keep expectations in check for at least the first half of December.

Agree.

You may need some this December.

I don't expect to be that cold due to differences in the Pacific and a slightly more canonical el Nino, but there should be some huggies.

I would want to be around and outside of I 495 early.

May end up with an ONI near the top of my 1.7 to 1.9 range.

Check out the comparison between the early December forcing and January 2003.....lends confidence to my conclusion of an interior focused start to the season.

Agreed. But to be fair, no one expects wall-to-wall cold and snow, so I have no issue with some periods of east-based forcing....makes sense to me....just like 2016 wasn't endless east-based forcing, this one won't be endless Modoki forcing....they are both basin-wide events.

January 2003 looks like it had the dual forcing that Chris pointed out.

I need to look at it more, but I expect the month to be serviceable...maybe normal snowfall for the coast and above inland? I don't feel as though it will be a cold month, but I don't expect a blow torch that is devoid of snow near the coast. I do expect a significant storm around the holidays.

I could see a thaw in early January before we go more favorable again later in the month.

Of course, just in time for Christmas Eve My feeling on that is that its probably temporary, as we also saw a period of east-based forcing during the fall, as well...but it just didn't last. Also, if you recall, January 2016 had a period of Modoki like forcing that coincided with the blizzard, so we need to remember that there are periods that deviate from the DM mean state....everyone agrees that is in fact a basin-wide event, and not a true Modoki, so some stretches of east-based forcing shouldn't shock anyone.

Yes.

I feel as though you have done a great job of learning and toning down your enthusiasm, but it seems to me that you are now overcompensating in the other direction. We are probably going to see a significant snowfall right to the coast this December if that modeled pattern materializes. December typically doesn't feature a negative NAO during the month of December in Ninos.

I've been saying at all fall....stop being afraid of el Nino....when the forcing sets up where it has, it's your friend, not foe... ignore the silly crap from Webber and Roundy about how the vp doesn't matter. This is why.

Canonical east-based super-Nino?

I didn't blog on this event....wasn't worth it for an inch or two on the hill tops.

UGH. I got a bad feeling when I saw posts in this thread tonight.

I ended up with 40.5"....I was just far enough north to not get totally skunked.