40/70 Benchmark

LOL Its a pretty reasonable take IMO.

Well, I am hardly above climo...

I am already out on March, anyway...I expect an early spring....we could sneak in something the first week, but other than that....

I could see that and its a risk....this is why I made a post last night to the effect of we will need to catch a break in January to end up with above average snowfall regionally.

Yup....like @bluewaveputs it..."competing forces". But I will say the STJ is pretty iron clad el Nino.

Interesting take...this is probably why some of the -PDO years sucked in this area. We'll just have to hope that changes.

The forcing from el Nino is so far west that it actually bolstered the warm December idea.

Now more like "got to get that off the driveway or it will met before I can make weenie snowbank piles"

Yea, its was a slightly toned down version of 1/7/1996 in that raked right up the coast....I got like 16" to the NW of Boston.

Precisely....and February 1983.

Jerry, I think.

Dude, you average 20"....you may get that in 10 hours between about Jan 25 and March 1.

VENUS WAS ONCE EARTH-LIKE, BUT THEN THE MJO WENT INTO PHASE 5

I'd hit it-

Define rat....this isn't going the way of last year.....if anywhere in the lower terrain of Mass gets less snow than last year, then I'll shave "NorEastermass128" into my balls and post to social media.

Don't get ahead of yourself......the tropical season looks like it may be off of the charts and la Nina winters following high ACE seasons have been pretty kind to the east...even raindance will tell you that. A lot will depend on how quickly the solar wind picks up and distributes the geomagnetic energy following solar max...if that can hold off for one more year, we may be able to sneak it in before the run of +AO/NAO winters that comes with descending solar.

Yea, agree....probably a week to 10 days before the real meat of the season lasts about a month.

Perhaps a brief bout of Maritime forcing coinciding with the heat flux into the strat, but if you follow the 2016 analog, it should not be prominent enough to really dominate the month.

Or DC

Independent of MJO......ridging as polar warming works it's way from trop to strat

00z GFS verbatim would have me ready to throw punches.

The massive persistent signal worked out great, but the track didn't.

I feel like there are two inflection points for this winter.....the first one represented by whether or not we could pull a good event or two in December to really be able to pull a rabbit from the hat and get an epic season.....that was possible, but looks to be going by the wayside. The second more important inflection point is to get a good event or two in early January before things go sideways for again while the tropospheric energy fluxes into the stratosphere. I think this will be necessary for an above average snowfall season across much of SNE because getting above climo will be a tall task if we wait until the SSW begins to pay dividends late month and into February. This is mainly for SNE, as NNE as already done okay and the mid Atlantic only needs one major event to do well.