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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like the GEFS better for early January.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see that.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe we somehow eat a cosmic dildo again this season (doubt it), but that can't be foreseen.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    December was worse than I thought, but absolutely nothing has changed about my thoughts for the rest of the season. Zero....confidence is high.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    No. The only can kicking was the improved Pacific from mid December to early January. However, the big blocking and most favorable stretch has always been pegged for later January and February.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I said beyond the 20th for the best this season has to offer.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    You must have JUST beaten @snowman19to it.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't agree with him siding with the EPS COD idea for the MJO, as opposed to the GEFS Mairime phases...is that what he gave up on?
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Can't argue with that
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would give it until about Jan 20....if nothing is imminent at that point, then maybe time to panic.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think anything had been delayed...at least AFAIC...it just sucks to not catch a break with an even early January.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still think it will be different...its just sucks not to catch an early season break.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still don't see any discrete threat to ascend us from "pattern talk". I got shutout in December, which is pretty tough to do.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    This December is worse than last year IMO.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I incorporated it as a February analog.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, fine....just saying I think it has the right idea...my guess is we see Maritime phases coinciding with the wait for the Strat warming to propagate downward.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do not agree.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll bet the GEFS are right with the Maritime forcing mid January.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Stay safe
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    No it won't.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    We're onto 2024.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still don't see anything to get excited about in terms of storms...while that certainly could change, I previously stated that I will not be suprised if we waste early January and need to wait until late month, beyond the reshuffle/thaw.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    There are a few like that and this is what drowns out some outstanding analysis in this subforum.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    December 2022 was a pretty extreme RNA, though....while I understand the propensity for contemporary NAO blocking to be displaced southward and appreciate the risks that entails, I am quite certain we will have more working in our favor relative to last season.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Last January was a great example of this....western biased +PNA went a tough over the west coast.
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