40/70 Benchmark

I agree with this. I do not expect a cold month and won't be suprised if it ends up underwhelming in terms of eastern snowfall.... I think it will be serviceable in the mean.

I don't understand exactly how is manifests as far as dictating who benefits, but I do understand how to determine whether one will take place on a seasonal level. I've done it several times now over the past decade and look to again this year.

Oh, ok...great event, I just didn't view it as a blizzard. Not to get into semantics....

People also over attribute it to big snow and cold in the NE.. like ENSO, they come in all different varieities.

Not if you understand it. Worked out great last year...MBY not withstanding.

Jan 2022? I remember that....

Its coming....how much we benefit from it remains to be seen, but this was obvious to me since August.

Allsnow is just as biased as snowman, but he contributes more so it flies under the radar. You learn alot by following emoji patterns....its like a stream of consciousness whereas they veil it more in posts. Look at a guy like Bluewave, while you may not love what he shares, he won't weenie any post that implies winter still exists.

It doesn't need to be February 2015 to snow....people are getting carried away quoting fortune cookies and all. I still think I'm on the right track.

Pattern recognition is one thing, but I'm not sure Canada was exceedingly warm last fall when most outlooks were issued. It's also only problematic if one was expecting a cold winter, which no one was to my knowledge. It doesn't preclude being just cold enough to snow in the second half.

Just being a jerk...obviously some sarcasm.

Ah yes......genius. Don't ever issue a forecast, and you can claim to have "nailed it", while telling everyone who did why they missed it. Lol In all seriousness, I agree with a lot of what you are saying and I don't expect anyone to spend the time that I do...truthfully it isn't necessary, but it helps me to learn. All I am saying is that if you are going to be critical of others, at least go on record with something yourself. I will also say, these variable are know when looking in hindsight, which is the value of analogs.

I haven't seen anyone forecast a cold month of December. I think the high end of my range was +3F. It's very rough to forecast extreme anomalies at a seasonal level...this is why it's considered a huge signal when you see a 985mb low on a day 10 ensemble mean. I also find it hard to credit anyone that doesn't put forth a published effort....sorry, bumping a quote about a warm pool from October or November doesn't do a hell of a lot for me. Put the time and effort in and I'll give credit where its due. Short of that anyone trying to claim credit for anything is akin to a lucky guess on a math test without any work shown.

Good analog...one of my favs from the composite.

I agree!

Chef's kiss of a statement. Largest issue plaguing this forum is the the dearth of capacity for nuanced thinking.....George is the perfect example, from one end of the spectrum to the other.

2/10 on the suprise meter.

Not happening.

You wonder if at some point GW slows, too....perhaps some modifications being made in conjunction with natural variability. Just a thought before anyone jumps down my throat...I am not denying or disputing anything.

They are....east coast has seen increased snowfall, but a decrease in snow cover days...larger storms, but less storms.

Aside from forecast verification purposes, it really doesn't matter how heavily the early season warmth skews the seasonal mean positive.....as long as its seasonal and active for January-February.

Yep...this is a point I have mentioned to @snowman19...we spend several months fighting tooth and nail over what ultimately amounts to 10" of snowfall and 1/10 of a degree Celsius in a strip of water in the tropical Pacific.

This is what I am banking on in conjunction with the disturbed PV in order to avoid a yet another terd up here....more N stream response than is typical of an el Nino this strong.

Same with la Nina...some of the Modoki la Nina events begin colder than east-based. 1976 was very weak, which leads to more variability because the season is more dictated by extra tropical forces.

ABSOLUTELY. This is what I spent in inordinately large amount of time trying to communicate.