40/70 Benchmark

It wasn't hard for me....just kind of watched the historic pack rot away as the month invented new ways to not snow. Caused me to fall 12" shy of my 1996 seasonal record.

1957, 1965, 1986, 2002 and 2004 much better polar analogs IMO...all snowy in SNE, regardless of PDO.

Also, be careful with 2009...its a great overall analog, but I disagree about it being a great POLAR analog.....that year was ascending fresh off of solar MIN. This year, while it still may be ascending, it's just about to solar max....exotically negative seasonal NAO departures are pretty rough to find approaching solar max. Plug ins pedestrian -NAO into that season and there would be no SNE none job.

Same page in the mid Atlantic, but I do not expect below average snowfall in SNE. I see why you would go that way with the -PDO, but take a look at the +IOD years....most of the NE bone jobs were -IOD. Plus I see some residual N stream vigor due to the several year run of cool ENSO dominance. I agree that there could be a HECS that whiffs us, though. 57-58, 86-87, 02-03....all great in SNE and all basin-wide to Modoki el Nino following triple cool ENSO. I also feel there may be another warm ENSO next year.

March 2015 was pretty similar....cold, dry, shitty ending...though March 2015 was a bit better south of pike.

All good news. I want el Nino driving the forcing with the VP stagnant just east of the dateline.

High 70s..same as '13-'14

One of the most overrated for me..right up there with 1993-1994.

It looks like January 2003, which is just fine with me.

2010-2011...it was a blockbuster.

You thinking of '13-'14?

It will get close in terms of ONI, but I expect the forcing to remain more Modoki like on average.

Probably like .7

You are a low key @snowman19clone.

I still think we see a mild stretch mid month...guidance has probably over adjusted to a degree.

This I can buy, but I am still skeptical of month long -NAO.

I wouldn't bail on that yet....we can have big blocks in December and still average a slightly positive NAO in the monthly mean...see last year.

Just bring them...teach them our unhealthy way of life.

Even I consider any significant December snowfall as gravy...the larger implication is what it means for the balance of the winter, thereafter.

You don't need an exotic anomaly like that...in fact, it was so extreme that it was of a detriment to most of NE, as it wrapped milder maratime air in from the NE and also blocked some systems from coming up the coast.

This map perfectly conveys the snowfall distribution that I had in mind doing my outlook.

I'm excited....will be firing up the guidance package this coming week.

Looks to be a GTG you don't want to miss.

The prospect of 2009 with a more pedestrian DM mean NAO intrigues me a great, great deal.

I'm with you on December...we will have some shots, which is already a leg up on any recent month of December..but I need to see the whites of a threat's eyes.