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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Dick Toleris finally bailed on the NAM winds most knew weren't happening.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anything pre 2024 is a bonus.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    EPO can average +DM and still yield fine periods....going to wager that much of February its negative. Considering how decidedly positive it has been this month, averaging positive for DM will not be a tall task and doesn't mean that there will not be negative stretches from here on out.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    He didn't say largely positive NAO....be said back and forth averaging around neutral, which I agree with.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean, remember after the -NAO block at the start of the month, even Eric Webb added it to his list of top analogs. This season won't be just like 2009, but take a look at years with similar forcing such as 1986, 1957 and 1965...even 2014....some mild months of December on there.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Don't forget, I have also pointed out that the forcing is actually a bit WEST of 2009, so there is more Maritime influence at play, which we are seeing this month, as expected.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we just need something to break right with some sort of an event to arrest the fatalistic thought process that has afflicted the forum over the last several years.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm convinced this is all just noise, at this point...I have been all in on a SSW since August and that isn't changing.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I haven't seen anyone expecting this season to have similar temp anomalies to 2009. Analogs only have value when used correctly. Clearly the fact that the oceans are so much warmer, most notably the eastern ENSO regions, combined with the -PDO will make a difference. We're also approaching solar max, as opposed to solar min.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't worry until like January 20th, but that's just me...I wouldn't blame anyone for worrying in early Jan if nothing is imminent.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think January will be very similar to 1966, 1987, and 2003....obviously adjust for CC.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    No way!?
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, my goal isn't frozen pipes, its buried mailboxes.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Toally....got another rake refresh in.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Another pattern relaxation. You know what I mean, semantical assassin
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Kev has always been consistent with that, though....he hates losing December and wasting the low sun angle.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    @bluewaveCould you post that graphic listing the warmest December years again? I think I saw you post it yesterday...
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like there will be another thaw in mid January as the energy flux makes its way from the troposphere to the stratosphere...then the most favorable stretch is in February.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes. 100% refunds to all paying customers, Phil.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I know what he means, though....I expected some snow this month and it sucks to lose the holidays after some promise for a second consecutive season.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes....2015 was the best winter experience of my life.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not even close. Haha But maybe I will be wrong.....if I am, I will admit and give credit where due, as always.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, beautiful day...Good call. Gonna rake
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....I thought we'd see SOME snow in December and if we don't its unfortunate, but it's of little relevance moving forward.
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