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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly....its like having the surface low near the BM, but the upper levels being elongated to over the Berkshires. You wouldn't disregard the upper levels in favor of the surface when forecasting synoptics, so why some are doing it with respect to ENSO in seasonal forecasting is beyond me.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sometimes the fangs are the truth.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I think in this case we have pretty good idea that were are porked several days in advance.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    What does @Cuteirishgirl25think?
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like Sunday evening is when that mid week SW is sampled.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    The issue is plenty correctable at this rage, but you need immaculate timing to have the Pac wave slow down.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Too bad that energy is crashing the NW....this is the problem the first half of December and why its an uphill battle. Its not prohibitively warm, but that Pac jet isn't allowing the flow to amplify enough.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just like the dung lead wave that screwed up Jan 2015. lol
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, better than in the car, I guess...just get under the cover of night, at least.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I lived there for the first 38 years of my life....IDK, I think Scott needs to put the windows down when shits himself.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm not altering my routine. Being courtesy and covering your mouth when you cough, etc is one thing....but I'm not quarantining myself every time I have the sniffles. Its just politicized momentum carrying this germ phobia, at this point. Regardless of whether you live in a bubble or not, people just need to reaccimate themselves to their own mortality....you are going to get sick and eventually die. Not that I am currently sick because I am not.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, the index metrics aren't always perfect....H5 is definitely more representative of ascending solar (blocky). Look at last January with the PNA...it was technically positive, but western biased and acted deeply negative.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I never noticed that...my sister lives right off of 93 in Wilmington.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    About 200k.... Probably Tewksbury area.....
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, one way or another, this should be my last winter in Methuen. I should be out of here within the next year.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'll hit 65" while HubbDave hits 150" and KASH gets 90".
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Which is why I haven't had been within 10" of normal seasonal snowfall since 2017.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Uncanny how there has never failed to be a large gradient either just NW or just SE of me past several years.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, agreed. I still feel like it ends up a bit above average.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right, not according to SSTs in the conventional sense, however, the convective forcing remains redolent of a Modoki configuration. Basin-wide events have a larger variance.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    The only year that I can't really figure out is 1987-1988...it was ascending solar coming out of the min, yet had a +NAO in the DM aggregate. My best guess is that while the el Nino was basin-wide, it had a fairly strong tilt to the east. The AO was fairly strongly negative, though.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Trust me, I know. lol 12/8 Displacement.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its there in this form today
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    The PDO was very negative in 1965-1966....take a look at that season, as its the best analog IMO....my main one. If you read my full report and still do not feel as though there is a relationship between vp and sensible weather, then I give up...not sure what else to tell you. I even emphasized years that did not behave as expected given the vp pattern, such as 2006-2007, and went into great detail as to why (solar).
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