40/70 Benchmark

I swear, a few of the folks on here could use some Dialectical Behavioral Therapy to promote more nuanced thought patterns.

Who said it was going to "shut down" forcing in those regions? Are el Nino seasons supposed to be devoid of Maritime forcing? I have never argued that...we were in the west PAC phases during November, so we are not "shut down" there, either. As far as the warmth in region 4, again, no one is forecasting a cold season, so why are you bringing up weak Modoki years? All I am saying is that the position near the dateline will keep the warmth in check and give us wintery periods.

I will say....I have never been this confident in my 10 years of doing seasonal work, so I am pretty calm. If I get porked, it will be a sadistic IMBY type of dynamic.

Eh....I can def toss my kids' favorite toys against the wall....they will soon understand to link that with winter time rain.

No....not there yet. Check in on NY and if there is nothing imminent, then I may offer up some "interesting" material.

I think I recall raindance correlating Nino 4 warmth to warmer outcomes, too, but lets just see what happens. We have posted enough schematics at this point to rest easy knowing that we've been exhaustively exhaustive in our efforts. Time to let the atmosphere decide which camp is right.

Chris is a very intelligent dude....no doubt. I respect his opinions, but there is no data that is going to change anyone's mind at this point because we have all been obsessing over it for several months....what else can possibly be presented? At this point, I think we just need to agree to disagree with those whom we do not see eye to eye and reevaluate the new "data" that results from this winter.

I will admit, I was even annoyed that I didn't see a flake from that last piss event....now this one will be just north of me, and then the next on in the mid atl....I think I am as frustrated as anyone dating back the last 5 seasons.

You can see this coming....people are going to get very impatient if nothing is imminent by mid month because the residual frustration from last season is still fresh. If you feel the urge to cancel winter and melt in December, then I would consider stepping away.

It is about how you feel because it impacts how you perceive the data. I am of the opinion that the el Nino will be of sufficient intensity to move the forcing out of the Maritime region. You argue that we need better coupled el Nino to accomplish this, then in the same breath reference the magnitude of warmth in 2015, which was an extremely coupled event. I interpret the data as having forcing displaced to the west, closer to the dateline, than would normally be expected an el Nino with this type of evolution. You interpret it as indicating that this el Nino will essentially act like a La Nina and favor the Maritime forcing. I do not agree, as there has never been a significant el Nino that has done that....you can argue 1972, to which I would respond that descending solar fostered a dramatically different polar domain, which is evident in 1965. I am sure you will say that -NAO will not be as effective now because the block will be too far south.....frankly, I don't care to argue this anymore. We disagree and we'll see what happens.

There isn't any data that will alleviate your concerns because you feel as though milder phases will be prevalent for the foreseeable future due to CC. What I do know is that lower MEI years offer much greater potential for cold and snow than higher MEI years and this is not debatable. Its also a fact that years with forcing INVO the dateline offer greater potential for cold and snow. Based on this and the fact that we are not yet in the descending phase of the solar cycle, I will take my chances on the degree of DM warmth not being prohibitive of decent snowfall.

My update yesterday is the last you will see from me for a couple of weeks....not gong to write about an inch of slush on ball sack hill.

I understand that the warmest region 4 reading on record implies that one should proceed with caution as far as any negative temp departures this winter, but folks can not keep ignoring how paltry the MEI and RONI values are....this is a reflection of how much weaker the Pacific dipole is this year relative to 2015. Stop ignoring that.

Warmer than average in the DM mean is expected, but I will confidently say this will not be as warm as 2015.

Well, first of all, whether or not the warmth wins out "bigly" in December has nothing to do with the degree of blocking in January. Secondly, the idea that blocking already exists BEFORE any PV disruption is also supportive of the notion that January will not feature a dearth of blocking.

I feel like he has done a better job of being a bit more objective.

2.71" for the month will do it.

I think the Canadian is wrong for January with the loss of the blocking, but there should be a thaw, so maybe that skews things if its long enough and timed correctly.

Opposed to the later CFS with more blocking.

This is essentially what I went with...even if the slightly colder risk wins out, it shouldn't be too far off....CPC is on the same page, as well.

Yea, I could see that....like 1987, which is also a good analog, but I select two week windows of time, so still would be a pretty good call from that lead time.

More like don't "don't go cold"....

SSW between Xmas and 1/8.