40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I just meant the OTS part....he must be trolling on the rain part.
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EPS is well south of OP, but has a cluster near the OP.
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I'd wait for the EPS....this could easily miss. One OP EURO at day 7.
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January cancel cancel.
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I'd like about a 90/10 compromise in favor of the EURO.
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Ha...March 2001.....cute. I like where I stand from a consensus standpoint.
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Would you rather more rain?
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Get me to the 20th and see how things look.
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Would be very 1973 to miss this whole period.
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@bluewavehas presented research tying it to CC due to the West PAC warm pool.
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That is actually a critique of a guidance suite....if forecasters feel as though the mean usually follows the OP, then it will be referred to as "non-dispersive".
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I guess down the coast more it looks like a hugger distribution, but you can see how it runs into the block as it nears NE.
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No, that is the point....what good would the ensemble mean be if that were the case? Sometimes it is, especially at less lead time, but the point of the perturbed members is to detect the degree of variance within the realm of physically plausible solutions and determine whether or not the OP makes sense.
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That makes sense to me with a -PNA and -NAO.
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I don't agree at all. That looks like a SWFE/revedeveloper pattern....look how the cape does better than much of CT.
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Because the OP is essentially another ensemble member.....all the ensembles are is runs with slightly perturbed initial conditions.
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Last March would have been perfect even with a medium -PNA, but that west coast trough was historic.
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These are the kind of developments I was banking on to salvage a respectable season....we didn't have this in the awful el Nino seasons.
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Well, 2018-2019 didn't have much NAO, but last year it certainly did. 2018-2019 had a big -EPO, but we kept getting cutters.
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You can really see the SWFE configuration to the snowfall gradient with the blocking forcing more redevelopment to the NE.....Taunton>Tolland?
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Looks like Jan 2003 snow cover map.
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El Nino 2023-2024
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
How do you figure ENSO/opposite phase PDO is an indicator of EPO/WPO? -
Maybe it goes back to shit, but this is the exact point that I have been insisting would distinguish this season from terds like 1973. At least one of these should work.
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It's a 24 hour miracle!!
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We should catch one before it warms up again.
