40/70 Benchmark

Modoki el Nino are more associated with -IOD, too.

This is true for New England. But different tables do yield different results because I have seen 1965, 1968 and 1977 listed as +IOD.

I have seen a lot of winter composites distinguishing between IOD and PDO phases....which can also be explained by the polar domain.

This jives with my understanding....but I believe that 1963, 1965, 1968 and 1977 were also +IOD...all good winters. Blocking is the difference. Most of the el Nino NE screw job seasons were also -IOD...that isn't as frequent in +IOD.

Its seems to be its generally tied to canonical el nino, and modoki are more often in tandem with -IOD.

Its not a frigid pattern, but I don't think anyone expects that.

In which case, the polar fields become crucial as to whether winter can be salvaged, as the dichotomous nature of those two seasons in terms of NE snowfall illustrates.

That to me screams "active" with the split flow....and while the polar domain doesn't look great, the PNA over top of the STJ in the split flow would ensure enough cold to keep folks engaged. Like.

I liked DT's presentation....one thing I have noticed about him is that he inconspicuously never ends up issuing that "final update", so that he isn't really on record with an actual forecast.

Yes. I agree with this....which also factors into my early November release window, following the SAI calculation.

I used 2018...its not a horrible analog largely due to the PAC. I feel like there are worse matches than 2009...not perfect, but it makes my cut...especially after factoring in CC.

I really respect that last paragraph....something few people realize is that the exploration of how the atmosphere can evolve differently from what one expects is probably as important, if not more so than the forecaster's anticipated evolution. I don't agree with all of it, but really appreciate the effort. Lots of Monday morning QBs in seasonal forecasting that never put a publication where their mouth is.

I don't think it would matter much...just nitpicking.

Others can feel free to chime in, but I feel like the bitching over outlook release dates is a loser's lament for 2 primary reasons... 1) Not sure there is much skill to be gained in issuing a 60-90 day forecast over a 90-120, regardless of the forecaster's elevation. 2) I feel like its incumbent on the forecaster to publish whenever they feel as though they have enough data to do so, which for me is after Halloween, when the SAI data is in...not a huge deal, but its one indicator I like to mention in the interest of being exhaustive. Bitching about others releasing later is akin to crying to the teacher that you weren't the last to hand your test in, after the fact. You are done when you say you're done. Obviously if you are a pro and have a deadline, that is different...but I still don't get the whining.

Pretty much Andrew right into a major city...yikes.

1992-1993 isn't an el Nino....well, I don't expect a frigid winter. But 1.2 is the ceiling for a jump..I playing it safely since I was going off of my exchange with snowman.

My guess is a SO MEI of 1.1

Obviously, no one expects the MEI to remain weak.....clearly it will jump sooner than later.

Just think if come February its been very mild and yet I have continued to periodically list on many occasions several reasons why its about to get cold..you would have a field day. This is the equivalent to that.

Its not hitting 2.0 ONI.

I wouldn't expect a top 10 snowfall season...just in that sense maybe.

I feel like the forcing it being pulled west due to the warmth in the west PAC..this is also keeping el Nino in check.

Well, its not just about location of the forcing, but also the strength.....I know the 2009 el Nino was appreciably weaker at the point and given that modoki forcing is warm in the fall, that may have had something to do with it. I would need to delve into it more as far as location/distribution of anomalies, but I wouldn't expect it to be as cold in an absolute sense even given identical circumstances due to CC. Looking up the MJO data may be helpful. Would be interesting to dig into this if anyone has time...I have work and the outlook right now.

No doubt that there is some truth to what you are saying, as you always make great points. I am sure where is some impact due to the extra moisture, but I am also confident that the west PAC warmth is dragging the forcing west to a degree. That said, no one expects a cold winter with wall-to-wall modoki forcing.