40/70 Benchmark

I never realized what a treasure this subforum is.....if you have an open mind, one can actually learn the most from perspectives that don't always necessarily align with that of your own. Really appreciate the alternate lens through which some of you guys view things.

However, I do not expect snowfall totals rivaling either of those seasons...at least in SNE, but otherwise agreed.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/12/quiet-mild-christmas-will-transition-to.html

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/12/quiet-mild-christmas-will-transition-to.html

Quiet & Mild Christmas Will Transition to Progressively More Seasonable Holiday Stretch Significant Snowfall Unlikely Until 2024 Using history as a guide, Eastern Mass Weather explained in the Winter Outlook why the convective forcing pattern in association with el Nino that had become established throughout the fall was unlikely to change during the winter. Thus far in the early going this has proven accurate. As forcing has remained anchored in the vicinity of region 4 on the western flank of El Niño, which coincides approximately with MJO phase 7. This represented a large portion of the rationale for expecting a fairly mild first month of meteorological winter. Note the resemblance between the composite for MJO phase 7 during an El Niño: The December composite of robust El Niño events per meteorologist Eric Webb: And the current pattern across the North America: However, the changes that were expected to evolve during the holiday period and into the new year are underway and are beginning to be signaled more emphatically among guidance. New Year: New Weather Pattern There is growing support for the highly anomalous ridge that has been residing in the center of the continent as a by product of a ferocious Pacific jet to retrograde to the northwest. And eventually reach a position in northwestern Canada that will allow for the delivery cold colder air as the Pacific jet retracts. This is consistent with the progression of an El Niño season in which convective forcing is focused at the western flank of the ENSO regions as 2003 gives way to 2024. While colder air is unlikely to become entrenched enough to afford much opportunity for a significant winter storm for the middle portion of next week across the forecast area, some significant snow is possible across the higher terrain and especially northern New England. Then all eyes focus on the anticipated warming of the polar stratosphere and likely SSW as the ball drops, which promises to couple with the aforementioned changes to ensure an active second half of winter.

I think it will in general, but probably some pulses in there....I don't expect a standing orgy wave like 2015, but an extended wintry stretch.

Well, I was fairly well prepared for that reality mentally, as I spent about a week describing why it would happen in pretty vivid detail. But as a fail safe, the wife, kids and rewarding career tend to keep me grounded should January-February some how not work out as expected.

My mental health is just fine, which is why people (technically their insurance companies) pay me damn good money to for assistance in that capacity.

Yea, I have a hard time envisioning a positive outcome for SNE on that next one....gonna have to wait for 2024 IMO.

This is similar to some of the looks on guidance that we get when that ridge begins retrograding.

The #1 analog for the ski industry on the CIPS analysis page is your met career.

You def. quoted some this tweets in the lead up to this...or maybe it was Facebook.

No question the MEI isn't a good measure of intensity for this event, but I feel the RONI is a decent compromise.

Except when he gets excited about big wind, then you streamline his twitter feed lol

The man made stuff is more resilient than natural snowfall.

Enjoy, man....sucks. I was looking forward to it. If he comes and is doing okay and we get him settled in, maybe a I can sneak away for a bit, but doubtful.

Yea, good post and agreed. This also bodes well for January IMO, as we all remember the favorable period in January 2016. Of course, if the activity remains south of me again, I'll quit weather, but that is a discussion for another day.

Big wind stayed south of my home, which I am okay with....worked out perfectly with my being able to see the damage at work in Chelsea lol

So, as much as this sucks, I don't think I am going to make it....my son is really sick and mom is taking him home from Uganda. They arrive tomorrow....too bad it got moved up from today, but I understand why and agreed with the decision.

Gotta admit, that was impressive...especially since I got to experience it in Chelsea....winds do not seem to have been impressive at home....shocker. I have blogged about some tropical systems that were not that impressive. I will continue to take the under on wind 9/10 times, but yesterday was that one out of ten.

Yea, S MA, RI and CT can have that.....gladly sit that shit out.

Nah, I don't do core samples for snowfall...I only have accurate totals for months in which it doesn't snow.

Blocking looks more significant in 1952...but like I said, I am sure it's a combination. I have never denied CC....you are just more aggressive with attribution than I am. This is the reason I like to use 1951-2010 climo for analog composites...no question global heights are greater now.

3.3" total rainfall....no wind damage at home