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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    30"? Sure.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is precisely the type of season capable of providing climo snowfall right up the coast clear into se coastal SNE in one system. Remember I said this about 4-6 weeks from now.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, especially for the southeast coastal areas and down through the tristate area into the mid Atlantic. People are just so frustrated right know that they aren't really able to view this objectively and fully appreciate how quickly ground can be made up relative to climo in one fell swoop.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Important thing is that the PV is weak....I'm just hoping for a SSW for verification purposes. Its by no means necessarily winter cancel if the PV isn't absolutely decimated.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    @forkyforkMade a great point in the NYC thread to the effect that most of the El Nino comeback seasons began to do so in the second half of January....two notable exceptions that I can think of being January 1966 and 1987. 1987 is a poor Pacific match, but 1966, which was my favorite analog, is not.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, yes, yes.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think December will be like +5 for us....I expected +1 to +3.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like the GEFS better for early January.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see that.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe we somehow eat a cosmic dildo again this season (doubt it), but that can't be foreseen.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    December was worse than I thought, but absolutely nothing has changed about my thoughts for the rest of the season. Zero....confidence is high.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    No. The only can kicking was the improved Pacific from mid December to early January. However, the big blocking and most favorable stretch has always been pegged for later January and February.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I said beyond the 20th for the best this season has to offer.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    You must have JUST beaten @snowman19to it.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't agree with him siding with the EPS COD idea for the MJO, as opposed to the GEFS Mairime phases...is that what he gave up on?
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Can't argue with that
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would give it until about Jan 20....if nothing is imminent at that point, then maybe time to panic.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think anything had been delayed...at least AFAIC...it just sucks to not catch a break with an even early January.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still think it will be different...its just sucks not to catch an early season break.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still don't see any discrete threat to ascend us from "pattern talk". I got shutout in December, which is pretty tough to do.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    This December is worse than last year IMO.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think I incorporated it as a February analog.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, fine....just saying I think it has the right idea...my guess is we see Maritime phases coinciding with the wait for the Strat warming to propagate downward.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do not agree.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll bet the GEFS are right with the Maritime forcing mid January.
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