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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll take the UK.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see it going near our just outside of the BM, too...I just don't buy a clean whiff right now. It could end up a se MA JP, though.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Fair enough.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe my opinion will change when I look at things tomorrow, but I doubt it.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Feel free to weenie me for that...I get it. If I'm wrong, then so be it. One caveat being that I could see guidance focusing more on 1/20 instead. I don't think that emerge form this period unscathed.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Honestly, I haven't examined the synoptics of this yet...will do so tomorrow for a First Call that should be warranted...but simply put, this is a "gut" instinct based upon how I expect this season to evolve. I just can't imagine coastal SNE approaches late January with next to snowfall given what I knew about it going in based upon what I learned last fall.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I call BS on the Euro suite.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not contesting it....the west PAC warm pool is certainly at least somewhat attributed to CC.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not worried.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Completely agree. Competing with residual cool ENSO backdrop amid a very warm west PAC.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Actually, I confused that with the UK. GFS is reasonable.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, generally speaking. ...but it could still max out in plenty of time for you. More of an issue further down the coast.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Another N stream dominated late-bloom job. This season def. has the weaker (relative to ONI) warm ENSO/cool ENSO flavor that I anticipated.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Too amplified. I'd bet my scrotum on it.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not very hard to believe if you hadn't been dismissing the concept of RONI and MEI for the past 6 months. Many of us have been trying to tell you that this particular El Niño event would not be as prominent a hemispheric driver as the ONI would imply. That said, looks like a nice call by you regarding the ONI.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup. I never debated the -PDO flavor this year, but rather I was just harping on the idea that we can live with a pedestrian cold phase Pacific given favorable polar fields. We are about to see that play out.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Theme I am seeing emerge this month is the active N stream that I anticipated last fall as a result of the residual cool ENSO GLAAM. I like my spot this year.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's on the path back to reality.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Here it comes, boys...no early spiking. Act like you've been there before.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    That may JP me again.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think Feb 2013 was the most impressive display of snowfall and wind that I have seen....March 1993 for just wind and April 1997/March 2018 for just snowfall.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    It wasn't that impressive in terms of snowfall for me, as I had like 15" before a flip to IP....but to this day I have never seen drifting in my area like I did in that. Drifts were several feet deep, which is unheard of in the wind pit that I live in ...Wilmington at the time.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Figured.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just wait on ensembles.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Good news for you!!
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