40/70 Benchmark

Yea, agree....probably a week to 10 days before the real meat of the season lasts about a month.

Perhaps a brief bout of Maritime forcing coinciding with the heat flux into the strat, but if you follow the 2016 analog, it should not be prominent enough to really dominate the month.

Or DC

Independent of MJO......ridging as polar warming works it's way from trop to strat

00z GFS verbatim would have me ready to throw punches.

The massive persistent signal worked out great, but the track didn't.

I feel like there are two inflection points for this winter.....the first one represented by whether or not we could pull a good event or two in December to really be able to pull a rabbit from the hat and get an epic season.....that was possible, but looks to be going by the wayside. The second more important inflection point is to get a good event or two in early January before things go sideways for again while the tropospheric energy fluxes into the stratosphere. I think this will be necessary for an above average snowfall season across much of SNE because getting above climo will be a tall task if we wait until the SSW begins to pay dividends late month and into February. This is mainly for SNE, as NNE as already done okay and the mid Atlantic only needs one major event to do well.

I'm not a doctor, but if I were, I would diagnose you with a gross tolerance deficit.

For the onset of the transition....probably no snow until after NY.

LOL I like them both...smart guys, but I just don't get that.

I can't figure out whether some of these dudes like snow or not.....like in real life when you can't quite wrap your mind around someone's sexual preference...it's just a mystery. Snowman and ALLsnow are like that with me....they either don't like snow, or have some of the most deeply entrenched compensatory defensive proclivities ever observed. Like "I love snow so much that I can't tolerate the thought of not getting it again, so let me "act out" against anyone that dares to entertain the notion of cold and snow". lol

He was naked in the squad car with him....wearing nothing but the brass.

Another day, another language for @snowman19to tell us winter is over lol Hopefully for tomorrow's lesson we will learn to say "cold rain" in hieroglyphics.

I expect a favorable week or two to kick off the new year mainly due to the Pacific, then a milder stretch before the proverbial hammer drops late January as the SSW propagates.

In a few weeks we have yet to even reach climo nadir lol

He has already accomplished his goal, which was to leave 2-3 pages of verbal carnage in his wake lol

It would be one thing if we had this pattern in mid March, but January shouldn't be an issue....I would favor the interior and elevations, sure....

Yea, we have been through this every day....it means it won't be zero degrees near the coast anytime soon, but you don't need arctic air to snow above the 38th parallel in January.

Eh......dunno about "all"....

I got on the subway around Memorial day to go into Boston and there were still snow piles along side of a warehouse where the snow had slid off of the metal roof during the winter. And I live NW of town...the south shore was ground zero. That is absurd for coastal SNE...that is like Jackman, ME shit.

Every subforum has some weenies, though....SNE has them. Bluewave reminds me of raindance in the sense that I initially mocked him because I didn't like much of what he had to say, until I quietly realized that he probably knows more than I do. Humility is the greatest gift anyone can ever give you.

I will admit that if I hadn't gotten clobbered with that extra chromosome, it would have been an inny not an outty here

I never realized what a treasure this subforum is.....if you have an open mind, one can actually learn the most from perspectives that don't always necessarily align with that of your own. Really appreciate the alternate lens through which some of you guys view things.

However, I do not expect snowfall totals rivaling either of those seasons...at least in SNE, but otherwise agreed.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/12/quiet-mild-christmas-will-transition-to.html