40/70 Benchmark

I figured the GFS sucked from the lack of comments and sure enough....

Sunday Snow Forecast Fairly Well Amounts Slightly Heavier Inland and Lower Than Forecast Immediate Coast Here are the snowfall amounts from yesterday's storm versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call. The forecast overall was a high quality effort, however, there were two glaring issues. 1) The 8-14" area of maximum forecast snowfall, while generally accurate, would have been better served to reflect 12-18" and be positioned ever so slightly to the south of where it was in the forecast. There also should have been a secondary area over northwestern Connecticut. 2) The more glaring error was the forecast for 5-10" along the immediate coast in the densely populated Boston area, whereas the lower levels remained warm enough to limit accumulations to as low as 3.1" at Boston's Logan International Airport. However, amounts of over 6" were observed just away from the ocean (6.5" Brookline, MA) in the Boston area, as well as over interior southeastern Mass (6.25" in Taunton, MA). Suffice to say, the gradient along the east coast was not quite sharp enough to reflect the thermal changes from the marine influence. Final Grade: B+

http://<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">500mb height anomalies &amp; height anomaly analog dates from the Jan 8 00z Canadian Ensemble Mean for days 6-10, centered on Jan 16th.<br><br>9 of the 10 analog dates are from El Ninos and 4 of the 10 dates are from 3 of the all-time great Greenland Blocking winters (59-60, 68-69, 09-10) <a href="https://t.co/UTtodef25c">pic.twitter.com/UTtodef25c</a></p>&mdash; griteater (@griteater) <a href="https://twitter.com/griteater/status/1744378019953754594?ref_src=twsrc^tfw">January 8, 2024</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

...then proceed to attribute it to CC

Reminds me of the OT drama.

Why not just leave instead of reposting all of the crap you're complaining about?

I simply provided a very apt profile of the type of person that engages in said attacks....I mean, if the shoe fits....not my fault.

I think our forum offers some of the most insightful met analysis in between the back and forth, which I don't mind. But to each their own, I guess.

Fair....its tough to keep track for the specifics of everyone's take. I do remember you expressing some optimism now that you point that out. My bad on that...I had honestly forgotten. This is why I am sure to include maps because its tough to keep track of.

The thing is...everyone knows how difficult even short term forecasting is with respect to complex winter storm systems, never mind seasonal forecasting....all it takes is demonstrating a modicum of humility and tactfulness and people are pretty forgiving, or at least our peers within the weather community are. Hopefully those of us who are not yet mindful of this will be at some point.

Funniest part is I didn't even catch that.

@jbenedetI assume as a meteorologist you are proficient in reading comprehension, correct?

For the record, he is right. December was clearly worse/warmer/less snowy than I expected. In case I hadn't already made that abundantly clear.

These are the maps that will be used for grading/verification purposes...the monthly analogs....the others ones are the seasonal composites for the month.

This is why I love being so detailed with everything.....splendid counter for when guys like him try to move my goal posts.

SECS? It was over a foot N and W of Boston. lol Have a great day.

What an angry, bitter, impotent and ineffectual little man....I'm truly sorry that you are so unhappy with your lot in life, but I suggest you take action to change it, as opposed to projecting it onto others. For the record, here is my January excerpt for reference. January 2024 Outlook January Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1978,1983,1987,1988,1992, 2010 (x2), 2015, 2016(x2) This should largely be a tale of two months, as the warmer than average first half should give way to a colder second half that will be accompanied by the first of two historic seasonal snowfall potentials. The first half of the month should focus appreciable snowfall across the interior of southern New England, however, the coastal plane should join with a vengeance. A NESIS caliber storm is likely during the window between approximately January 22 and February 5, however, there is a possibility that it will be focused to the south of New England. The PNA should remain variable, which will continue to fuel an active pattern as the PV grows increasingly more disturbed in the wake of a SSW during the window from about Christmas through January 8. H5 composite: 1951-2010 1991-2020: January 2024 Forecast Temp Anomalies: 1951-2010: The month should finish from near normal to 2 degrees F above average over New England due to the magnitude of the late month cold not being able to negate the early warmth. However, the Mid Atlantic should be normal to 2 degrees F below average. 1991-2020: January 2024 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: It would not be a surprise if precipitation was underestimated especially during the month of January in the analog composite, as the degree of warmth in the oceans should ensure plenty of moisture availability.

Well, at least you hit my range, but def. should have kept it 4-8".

Yea, that mid month stretch is evolving. Gonna be some adjustments IMO and hopefully more get in on it this time.

I am so pissed a I nudged Boston from 4-8" to 6-10" at the last moment...I KNEW that I would regret it.

+19" 19" on the season.

19" Final will do it.

Yea, Logan...ocean front tarmac.

This is up there for me...more than I got in 1/7/96 lol Comparable to Jan 2005...only April 97, March 2018, Feb 2013 and Jan 2015 were definitely more than this.

Got to hand it to him, though....impressive utter dearth of humility to pick right up trolling again on the heels of egregiously bad calls that go unacknowledged.