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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel so vindicated for getting up an hour early...coworkers are texting saying they have no idea when they will get here.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    This event is definitely more impressive than the last one....was nice driving in earlier than usual to stay ahead of potential traffic nightmares....paradoxically peaceful as the sheets of rain blew by.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was worried about my forecast for a +AO/NAO December at the outset of the month, but looks like it will be okay.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not sure why the ridicule for mentioning model output on a weather forum...its so tiresome. Once Bluewave waxes poetic about the west Pac warm pool and phase 5, you guys drop your drawers.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow....your boy @snowman19turned on you....that was fast What a bastion of objectivity he is
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe new matress?
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I received a text just now saying outages were in my area...they were asking if I was out, but I'm at work already. Windy in Chelsea...
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    "Show me on the doll where mother nature touched you...its okay, go ahead".....
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    .53" as of midnight....in a break
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Another hapless effort at persistence forecasting born of some infantile defense mechanism. Log off and seek out a skilled therapist.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Dick Toleris finally bailed on the NAM winds most knew weren't happening.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anything pre 2024 is a bonus.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    EPO can average +DM and still yield fine periods....going to wager that much of February its negative. Considering how decidedly positive it has been this month, averaging positive for DM will not be a tall task and doesn't mean that there will not be negative stretches from here on out.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    He didn't say largely positive NAO....be said back and forth averaging around neutral, which I agree with.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean, remember after the -NAO block at the start of the month, even Eric Webb added it to his list of top analogs. This season won't be just like 2009, but take a look at years with similar forcing such as 1986, 1957 and 1965...even 2014....some mild months of December on there.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Don't forget, I have also pointed out that the forcing is actually a bit WEST of 2009, so there is more Maritime influence at play, which we are seeing this month, as expected.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, we just need something to break right with some sort of an event to arrest the fatalistic thought process that has afflicted the forum over the last several years.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I'm convinced this is all just noise, at this point...I have been all in on a SSW since August and that isn't changing.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I haven't seen anyone expecting this season to have similar temp anomalies to 2009. Analogs only have value when used correctly. Clearly the fact that the oceans are so much warmer, most notably the eastern ENSO regions, combined with the -PDO will make a difference. We're also approaching solar max, as opposed to solar min.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't worry until like January 20th, but that's just me...I wouldn't blame anyone for worrying in early Jan if nothing is imminent.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think January will be very similar to 1966, 1987, and 2003....obviously adjust for CC.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    No way!?
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, my goal isn't frozen pipes, its buried mailboxes.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Toally....got another rake refresh in.
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