40/70 Benchmark

This winter isn't over and I still feel snowfall makes a nice comeback.....but that said, regardless of what happens from here on out...my largest lesson gleaned this season is with respect to the how interpret the MEI/RONI concepts. I have always perceived it as lower readings of those metrics was synonymous with a simply weaker expression of ENSO, however, Bluewave really cystralized it with me in describing lower MEI/RONI as reflective instead of "competing forces". Just that two word clarification will make me a better seasonal forecaster moving forward.

All 3 major ensemble suites are locked and loaded in agreement on about 3-4" (10:1) over most of SNE off of the south coast over the next two weeks. That blows dead penguins.

No, but it looks like January may be quits.

"Bend over and find that orifice to stuff "-

Well, given how much tropical activity is expected, its worth considering that high ACE La Nina seasons have been pretty good in the east.

Everything involving snow is suspect and not ideal.

I always say I learn more from the missed seasonal outlooks than I do the hits.

The big January flip worked out, but its too bad that the PV lobes were too close to one another. That said, its definitely been warmer than we both thought in the aggregate this season.

Sey-Mour Wedgie

He has been good this season.

I find that evolution awfully disapointing and hope that its wrong.

I may lose it if we find our way to February with nothing imminent after having succeeded in pulling that off....this is about the point at which I came unhinged last year.

This little pack is really resilient with the ice crust on top...

The EURO NARCAN has 2" down to between the MA/CT border and I 84 and 1" down to I84.

Yes, because they don't have the ferocity to induce significant upwelling.....but you know mean, I am always reflecting on larger events.

I'll bet I have a wedgie Thursday...hopefully no one picks it.

My pet peeve is when people post Sea SURFACE anomaly charts within the context of tropical discussions.......repeat after me.....Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential.

Fascinating discussion....sorry to be so IMBY centric, but I think the discussion point translates to others, as well.

Don't forget January 2022...

That is how I have alway felt.

Man, CC is pissah.....mutant phase 5 that swallows the world and only leaves -PDO....and every major snowstorm that we do get is a CJ. Hopefully I have dementia in 30 years, so weather will still be fun.

But does what I suggested makes sense? John seemed to think so.

Honestly contemplating whether this area will be a relative snow pit for the next 40, 50 years....plan on upgrading one more time soon and then that is it.

Shit, maybe I should relocate to the N shore.

My son was born then....it was frigid and dry...like 12 below here.