40/70 Benchmark

I had 8-14" here...so yea.

Still shoveling @jbenedet's nearly 19" of whiff/warm from my driveway....almost as good as his forecast 38" of whiff for @dendrite a few years back.

14" settled depth is totally reasonable...neighboring Wilmington has the same.

I wish I left the 4-8" right on the water, but oh well....

18.75"....18" settled depth. Still snowing as of 9pm

I like how @bluewave described it....instead of viewing Lower MEI/RONI as a "weaker" El Nino or less coupled event, consider the lower values as a reflection of competing forces within the hemisphere....this year, said forces competing with warm ENSO are the residual cool ENSO GLAAM/PAC cold phase and west Pacific warm pool working in concert to displace forcing further west than otherwise implied by max SST anomalies within ENSO region.

I think it runs deeper than that....very adversarial and condescending tone for whatever reason.

He implied he may go big for the east next year....east-based, high ACE La Nina. I do think raindance is very good....in his defense, the east has been in a shitty stretch, so he been pretty accurate, but he def. seems like he enjoys it when the east struggles.

At Logan? Most of the city was probably 5-6"...

You were right on the line between 3-6" and 5-10"....not awful.

I will do a post analysis tomorrow, but not a bad call.....main issue was a bit too light and too far north.

The short range models owned the EURO in this.....they nailed it.

Yea! I had you right near the triad of 5-10", 4-8" and 3-6".

For reference.... FINAL CALL:

How much?

How much?

Attack is strong, but certainly passive aggressive trolling lol

Yes it does...forcing is so far west that its into the eastern portion of the MC, which favors -PNA in conjunction with the antecedent -PDO. As forcing has remained anchored in the vicinity of region 4 on the western flank of El Niño, which coincides approximately with MJO phase 7. This represented a large portion of the rationale for expecting a fairly mild first month of meteorological winter. Note the resemblance between the composite for MJO phase 7 during an El Niño:

You have some great insight, but admit it....you like to titty twist winter enthusiasts That's why you get shit.

Highly doubt that.

Right...I said INTERIOR SNE....Boston didn't do great in January 1987 and 2003, either.

I think this season is rather unique in the sense that it has some east-based characteristics, but for the wrong reason.....it's because the forcing is so far west that it triggers MC interludes, which are also warm in the east. That is different from years like 1998 and 1983...I think 2016, 2007 and 1995 are similar in that regard. If you run the temp composite and look at east coast snowfall, it comes out similar to east-based years because it sucks. But the difference this year from especially 1995 and 2007 is the blocking.

He isn't trolling...that was his forecast.

@raindancewxLikes to use local weather as confirmation of sensible analogs....well, look long and hard for a shit el Nino that buries interior SNE in early January...let me know when you find one. Looks a great deal like warmer versions 1966, 1987 and 2002 to me. Again, the warmth is not a surprise...no one expected a big cold/retention season with the strength of el Ninio/-PDO/ocean warmth combo.