40/70 Benchmark

Its a good fit for 2015 on the MODOKI spectrum and also in terms of sensible weather...this is why if you go back and look at my seasonal composite, 2015-2016 is in there. Remember, basin-wide events have a great deal of variability....its acting like a toned down version of 1997 now, but I do not expect that to continue. Its much weaker and more basin-wide...I think the favorable pattern will be more protracted than it was in 2016. 1997 never even got favorable in terms of sensible weather, which I do not expect.

Well, its also basin-wide....not Modoki. This is why in basin-wide events we often see the more canonical appeal present early on before the more Modoki like patterns establish later.

Well, I think most of us "like" posts that are congruent with our own beliefs....how many of those PAC jet posts do you like? Maybe he didn't agree with Will...it doesn't mean that he doesn't respect him.

I see your point....this is a toned down version of 1997 and 2015. Agreed.

Big difference between this year and 1994, as expected, is the PV...which bodes well for an ultimate deviation from that hapless winter season. But even February 1995 eventually had a nice stretch....my one good winter storm, which dropped about 1' in ne MA.

MJO456

@Damage In Tolland, ACE is Accumulated Cyclone Energy...its a measure of tropical activity. There is fairly strong correlation between the ACE of the previous Atlantic tropical season and the character of the subtropical ridge during the ensuing winter season during a La Nina. You want high ACE preceding la Nina winters in the east.

WTH is a spoon? I know back in the day it was Forky's significant other lol

I don't agree with you......TBH I think Allsnow and Bluewave contribute more than Anthony....nothing against him.

https://www.meteonetwork.it/models/mjo/

I would agree...still doubt 2.0, though.

Hopefully next year with what may presumably be a high ACE la nina, instead of last season, which was a high ASS la nina.

Sure......but there is also some level of culpability for those that allow themselves to be triggered by it...which is a sentiment that is also born of something less than absolute objectivity.

Its a precious few winter seasons that have resulted on much snow on the NE CP prior to Xmas...its easy to lose sight of that. Even 93-94 didn't kick off until after Xmas.

They actually bring a lot of positive weather contributions....its just that they are viewing it through a different lens then some of us and a more accurate lens, as it turns out for this month.

More like late November.

What really has gotten rare is the slow movers...that I what I thought he was originally getting at.

That is a good track to waste with no cold air, though...would be a porking for eastern areas.

Totally.

Well, I feel like that kind of coastal devastation again so soon on the heels of the Blizzard of '78 and the Perfect Storm was the anomaly.

I'm not there yet. If the whole winter succumbs to a roaring PAC jet, then maybe.

Hibernation....just like they had during the decade leading up to that one.

Yea, that map is crap....yours look great.

Remember it well. Gloucester 28"?? WTF....

Believe me, I hate losing the holiday period...second year in a row with a cruel headfake in that respect. Gave the daughter's dollhouse a few swift kicks.