40/70 Benchmark

Oh, okay. I agree with you. The warmer west PAC absolutely plays into RONI and the MEI.

I am with you on the cold being mainly mid Atlantic and south....I think any true arctic air holds off until February, once the SSW manifests. January will probably be near normal to slightly above in the NE...just cold enough to snow.

The pieces are saying the same thing. I haven't read your article, but the one that I presented, which involves RONI, simply specifies that this "rich get richer" and "warm get warmer" dynamic applies specifically to ENSO attributed warming RELATIVE to the mean background warming. You seem to be arguing more that its the background warming that is the driver. I hypothesize that that may be true when ENSO is not prominent, as was the case over the summer and into the early portion of the fall. This is why the forcing was displaced so far west when SST anomalies were biased well to the east during and shortly after the event's inception. Notice that said convective forcing has navigated slightly to the east since el Nino has taken over more...I know @snowman19 has pointed that out.

Yea, funny that after all of that bickering we essentially agreed. Just a neurotic display of our passion, which is why we focus and argue over the most subtle of details.

That was second....got going later in the day...had several inches and then some sleet to slot.

My best was 2017.....7" late Xmas eve/ early AM.

You had me at cold-anomaly-snow...

I don't think it will. I am talking about earlier when el Nino was weaker and more east-based.

Mid December has looked like ass for awhile now.

Any specific questions, let me know.

No, I read what I posted quite carefully considering I referenced it in my Outlook. This is why we aren't seeing an atmospheric response commensurate to the ONI....because the ENSO anomalies aren't as prevalent a driver due to the fact that they are partially negated by the sea of warmth. I do agree that the warm pool helped to initially displace the forcing west of where it would have otherwise been when this event was highly east based per SST anomalies.

Not true. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/349616356_Defining_El_Nino_indices_in_a_warming_climate "In a warming climate. changes in tropical rainfall and even the intensity of tropical cyclones are more sensitive to changes in relative SST than to background warming (Johnson and Xie 2010, Ramsay and Sobel 2011). That is, the pattern of mean SST warming is important because the largest increase in rainfall will occur in the regions that warm the most relative to the tropical mean, referred to as the warmer-get-wetter paradigm (Xie at al 2010). Uniform surface warming in the tropics will thus not act to appreciably change the local stability and hence precipitation telconnections associated with ENSO". I'm sure you will quote your on research and we can continue to have this literary sword fight, or simply wait to see who is right...we should know in about a month.

You would have stroked out over my actual blog post.

Yes. It won't change overnight and TBH, I don't expect a lot of frigid airmasses.....active and cold enough, for the most part.

Everyone is just bored with no exciting weather to analyze, so we micro-analyze ourselves lol

I wouldn't really call that "fighting"...I calmly presented empirical evidence in order to set the record straight on what my expectations were for the month since he impied there was some attempt at rationalization, or moving of the goal posts.

Here is the relevant excerpt from my work...you be the judge, chief. Balance of November-December 2023 Outlook December Analogs: 1953,1957,1965, 1982,1986, 1987,1991,1994,1997, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2014, 2018(x2) There are indications from guidance that the MJO will spend emerge and spend much of the balance of the month of November in phases 8 and 1 at moderate amplitude. These are mild phases for the northeast. Before entering phase two with a potential slight cool down to close out the month. This particular evolution has some emergent support from guidance. Potentially emerging in phase 3, as per the ECMWF, for the end of November. And the onset of December. This evolution would align with the expectation of an intensifying PV for the duration of November and into December before beginning to weaken in the general vicinity of the holidays through the new year. This overall progression is generally consistent with the Eastern Mass Weather forecast H5 composite for the month of December. December Forecast H5 Composite: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: What is very apparent is the consistency with the early season canonical El Niño appeal, which is not at all uncommon, but makes a White Christmas along the Atlantic coastal plane from Massachusetts points south fairly dubious. However, analog data implies that there is a window for a significant winter storm between Christmas and the New Year. The interior should be the focus, but that does not necessarily preclude the coastal plane from experiencing an early season snowfall. And this reality is conveyed quite vividly by the December forecast temperature composite. December 2023 Forecast Temps: 1951-2010: The month should finish 1-3 degrees F above average across the Mid Atlantic and New England. 1991-2020: While the month should finish slightly mild in the mean, it will be fairly active and should not be completely void of winter weather for the NE coastal plane, as there should be transient spasmodic PNA flexes. In fact, snowfall may very well be above average for the month across the deep interior and northern New England, where ski resorts should benefit from a blend of coastal storms and southwest flow events. December 2023 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: There will be undoubtedly a great deal of unrest from the contingent of self-proclaimed weather experts on social media who remain traumatized from what seems like a multi-decadal run of cool ENSO events. And while some of that residual lea Nina like atmospheric momentum will undoubtedly remain, rest assured that the wheels of change will be in motion by the new year. El Niño will continue its westward progression at the surface towards being better colocated with the central Pacific forcing as the polar stratosphere concurrently begins to warm. There Should be no repeat of January 2023.

As a LICSW and practicing therapist, I'm quite certain its some of the folks in this subforum who could use some dialectical behavioral therapy in order to increase capacity to engage in a more nuanced thought process.

Add the JMA to the list.

Pretty consistent with the GEM, EURO and GFS products.

Wednesday 12/20....Probably like 5 or 6.

I should put that in my sig.

Do you mean in a relative sense, or actually become stout? I think it will gather itself for a time in January, relatively speaking, but I would be stunned if the mid winter period ever features a particularly strong PV. I do, however, feel it will strengthen ahead of climo at the end of the season in March.

So more nuisance events...interesting. The thermal element of CC actually supports fewer middling events....so we will have to see how those competing elements work out.

I think CC in general will translate into fewer storms and increased intensity of storms.....temp and wind contribute to this.