40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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If the evolution remains Miller A like, that limits the ceiling for this up here....you aren't getting an upper tier solution like Jan 2015 or Feb 2013 from that....you just aren't, espcially across the northern half of the area. We are going to need a very proficient phase to get up to this latitude for a 1'+ type of deal for the majority of the area.
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This is why there is time being spent on butt-banging solitions because there is a pathway to that, as you have referenced, and this season has seemed to seek out said path at least excuse imaginable.
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I can, actually....I have been drawing parallels to 1979-1980 since mid January. That is my futility season and it wasn't warm, either. Awful match in AK, so its not a perfect analog by any stretch, but some similarities in the east.
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EURO would have Virginia with more snow on the season than I have.
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I'm not skeptical of the storm....I'm skeptical that we get impacted to a large degree.
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Yea, but its going to be windy Monday....have you factored that in?
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As much as the prospect of 2' in central Virginia intrigues me, my nose needs picking, so there are other worthwhile endeavors.
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I've waited to blog about this threat, despite the ceiling, for a reason...part of me still feels like I may never need to bother. I'll decide this weekend whether to do a write-off piece, or a preliminary threat assessment type.
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I'm really going to want to turn the page if next week doesn't work....not sure I want any more "chances".....hopefully the pattern flips in March and I can check out.
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You moved to Mass?
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GEFS and EPS both have increasing spread back to the west, with kind of an inverted trough eppendage like feature, so there must be at least a couple of larger hits showing up.
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Extrapolating, I think the 06z EPS would be a bit of a step back.
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00z EPS is a modest improvement over 12z.
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The 00z EURO is precisely the type of evolution I'm afraid of, and would fit that narrative of this season like a glove.
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I think its always been high confidence that there will be a large storm near the east coast, but I'm still leery of how exactly it unfolds....so no, still not entirely sold on a big hit.
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Of course that's the one post you make in this thread.
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Just looks like 06z isn't quite as proficient as a phase, but if that is the level of variance we are seeing at this range, that is about as glaring a signal as one could expect.
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Not at this point, no.
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Close...19mb.
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I think I'd literally sacrafice a nut to verify the GFS.
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I'm guessing the GFS does that.
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I guess others can get their rocks off too low baro....just give me a low that drops 25mb in 12 hours about 100mi south of LI.
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BINGO. Unless your telling me we are going to have a 1/100 year jet intensity like the Super Storm, that caps things up here at around a foot...give or take.
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I actually wouldn't care for a solution that deep at such a low latitude....LBSW interest anyone?
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May not make many changes to First Call.
