40/70 Benchmark

Just a short term blip. I don't think so.

Main difference is the PV.

You have been away...George has morphed into a poor man's snowman19 lol

I like to bust balls....its never personal and I do respect/value your input.

We all have some sort of preference and preoccupation regarding weather that will bias our perceptions to some degree, otherwise we would't be here. The goal is to foster greater insight into it and in so doing limit how detrimental it is to any forecasting effort.

Well, its one thing to break balls and we all know that everyone has some level of bias and what they are, but you have to keep it real. I don't know how anyone that doesn't acknowledge good forecasting can expect to have any credibility. It is what it is.

I think the manner in which the month of December evolved still bodes well for the rest of the season.

Ugh Enough with these demented wind fantasies.

Credit ninja lol

@Allsnow@SnoSki14@bluewave@snowman19Nice job on December....gotta give credit for not buying the holiday flip headfake. Nice job.

This is the same, exact list that I used in deciding on my 12/25 to 1/8 date range for the SSW.

Yes, kudos to @bluewavefor being specifically all over the jet extension and the modeled propagation of the MJO being biased fast. I expected a mild December, but didn't specifically highlight the jet extension and took the bait on the flip around the holidays. I don't think it changes much in the grand scheme of things, but it may cause December to finish a bit warmer than my predicted +1 to +3F range for the mid atl and NE. We shall see. Its not too surprising in hindsight considering that essentially a colder version of 2015-2016 has always been the expectation.

If you are referring to the seasonal mean, then I still doubt you.

You've been on a roll today

Agreed.

Depends which "no changes" cohort you mean...I remain quite confident I am on the right track.

Yep. Great post....nothing has changed...I was a bit spooked at the start of the month that I may have been a touch too mild, but it may be the other way....change maybe a bit late, but nothing is canceled.

Nothing to melt

The NAO/AO are not totally irrelevant, though...you can see in the December temp anomaly chart that it kept the NE from torching even more...while that doesn't matter in December, I think it would in a month to six weeks from now. But we all agreed this would not be a very cold year and I agree that Pacific is more important.

2.28" total RF

Too be fair, I think #2 goes both ways.....def more posters biased toward cold, though.

Down to 45 from 60.

.75" as of midnight.

I don't know of anyone denying climate change.

I think the MJO is contributing to the more +NAO/AO late month, but I agree the PAC jet is the main cause of the warmth.