40/70 Benchmark

Interesting that I see 2014 also in that list of warmest Decembers, so while I certainly don't expect a repeat of that, a warm December is not prohibitive of decent snowfall season. 2006 and 1968 were also on my list....1958 was, too.

I don't think it will be a cold as if it were to displace on our side of the hemisphere, but the blocking should still have an impact. I agree...I think the coldest periods will be in February when we have periods of EPO/PNA ridging.

That is fair and I see what you mean there....I agree about increased Maritime forcing relative to normal for el Nino, as I also touched on that. But I also believe that its going to lead to longer periods of dateline forcing in lieu having a purely canonical response in the seasonal mean. This is why I specifically stated that I expect volatility this year and it won't a be cold season prime for snowpack retention. The slightly weaker event is also resulting in a cooler, albeit still warm December than 2015, which I think will also help in January and February relative to that season.

I smell a Sci-fi publication....

Yea...its not going to be frigid, but should be cold enough at peak climo.

Locked in. Zero reservations. And yes.....it took me until January to start to know I was in trouble last year, so that doesn't necessarily mean I am going to be right.

I know we have exchanged thoughts about this before, but my hope if that it also entails a more active N stream in addition to mild, Maritime interludes. We may disagree on this, but I don't think its fair to say that it takes nothing away from the strength of el Nino. Perhaps not as much as implied, but when you lessen the Pacific dipole, it doesn't make sense to have every bit as pervasive an ENSO event. Is it as weak as the MEI would imply? Of course not, but I'm not sure how you give ENSO an opposite phase "flavor " and not render it a less proficient a driver than implied by ONI. Its a form of deconstructive interference that partially stifles hemispheric expression. I actually feel as though the RONI represents a sound compromise between the ONI and MEI, which is probably biased low by one determinant.

Let's see what actually happens.

No changes.

@Damage In Tollandpolicy is lol

Animate or it won't happen.

No...bookmarked. Evident that 1997 probably would have been decent if it weren't so overwhelmingly powerful.

You must be the most prolific bun magnet I have ever seen in my 17+ years on these forums.

Through all of the insanity, the sensible impact remains mundane.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/12/mild-december-continues-with-changes.html

Mild December Continues with Changes Slow to Evolve Maritime Forcing Remains Prevalent The polar vortex has began to recover as expected following the brief period of blocking that occurred near the onset of the month of December. This intensification of the vortex has occurred concurrent with the progression of the MJO into the Maritime region, which was described in last month's Winter Outlook as being the primary reason why December 2023 would be significantly milder and less wintery than analog seasons such as 2009-2010. "Some periods of a stronger PV are likely, especially early on, as implied earlier. This placement is also quite similar to the mean seasonal forcing during the QBO/solar el Nino analog season of 2009-2010, albeit even slightly further to the west as to include more maritime phase 6 involvement": "Which is one of the reasons why the coming season is unlikely to rival that one in terms of consistent cold and record magnitude of blocking/mid Atlantic snows". Note that currently forcing is biased towards the western edge of the above composite, which is consistent with Maritime phase 6. The progression of the MJO through the phases 6-8 for the balance of December will also be accompanied by a Pacific jet extension, as annotated by highly skilled meteorologist John Homenuk. Powerful Jet Extension Marked by +EPO This feature is due to the development of a powerful Gulf of Alaska low that will take shape between now and the holiday period. This regime is redolent of the strong and/or east-based canonical El Niño composite that Eastern Mass Weather asserted would be a prominent feature during the month of December. This confluence of factors will not only mean that the next powerful coastal system scheduled for early next week will also be rain. But that that the balance of the 2023 will finish at least as warm as anticipated (+1 to +3F) and potentially somewhat warmer. However, be that as it may, the notion that the new year will indeed herald in a new weather regime remains unchanged. End of December to Feature Changes & Paradoxical Early January Developments The final week of 2023 should be a period of great flux, both at the surface. But most especially in the stratosphere, as warming should begin to accelerate during the last week of December and culminate in a SSW during the first week of the new year. Tropical forcing should also align closer to the dateline, which is more congruent with the anticipated mean seasonal position. And similar to some of the more notable analog seasons. This will be accompanied by the MJO methodically navigating its way into a relatively meager phase 1 and 2 expression. The late December and early to mid January period promises to be somewhat paradoxical in the sense that the colder pattern triggered by the navigation of tropical forcing back to the general vicinity of the dateline will be countermanded by the energy flux from the troposphere into the stratosphere. This will likely act to truncate the somewhat colder period and lead to yet another mild period during the middle and perhaps latter portion of January, much to the chagrin of frustrated eastern US winter weather aficionados. However, this is a short term trade off for what promises to be a longer term late winter-time bonanza, so to speak. This evolution is endorsed by Dr. Judah Cohen. "It is of my opinion, much of the winter will likely hinge on the nature of this SSW that is predicted to begin the last week of December. I think the models were slow to appreciate the magnitude of the energy transfer from the troposphere to the stratosphere. Where the energy leaves or diverges it creates cold, low pressure and the westerly winds increase or in this case in the troposphere. Where the energy enters or conerges it creates warm, high pressure and the westerly winds decrease or in this case in the stratosphere. That is why I believe that the weather models both showed a more robust weakening of the PV simultaneously predicting more low pressure and less high latitude blocking in the troposphere and milder temperatures across the continents". More to follow prior to the New Year, or should any winter threats emerge for SNE in the interim.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/12/mild-december-continues-with-changes.html?fbclid=IwAR0ev45sXITT6nmnEbuxjxcgOe96DBIivUC-yID6B4lNvpJeGrjWMrdQe_8

"By the Power of Greyskull, I hereby command you to SELL!!!"

We need Skeletor to sell the team.

Been a lot of "trying" the past several years between the weather and Sox' front office.

Here is a surprise

What are your thoughts on January?

"Snow on the level increased to the height of thy knickers"....

I expected a good bit of phase 6 in December, as well as a brief period of PV flex before it takes a beating, so going pretty much as planned, so far....though as Raindance alluded to, it will definitely be warmer in the N plains than my composite had....tough to capture anomalies of that magnitude on a seasonal/monthly level. Don't get me wrong, I am sure there will some surprises, but no big deviations yet.

Yea, there should be another milder interlude in January before the meat of the season begins.