40/70 Benchmark

Here a couple of quotes from my work to remain mindful as the frustration mounts. There will be undoubtedly a great deal of unrest from the contingent of self-proclaimed weather experts on social media who remain traumatized from what seems like a multi-decadal run of cool ENSO events. And while some of that residual la Nina like atmospheric momentum will undoubtedly remain, rest assured that the wheels of change will be in motion by the new year. El Niño will continue its westward progression at the surface towards being better colocated with the central Pacific forcing as the polar stratosphere concurrently begins to warm. There Should be no repeat of January 2023. Primary Extratropical Pacific Analogs:1953-1954,1965-1966,1972-1973,2004-2005,2018-2019

I'm not.

'82 and '15 are both on my composite.

It looks alike in the Pacific, not the arctic.

Sometimes I wish he'd punt his laptop.

Maybe confide in a met friend?

It is a matter of opinion... they really do believe that the west Pacific warm pool has altered the hemispheric pattern moving forward

I think it peaks around 1.2

Yea, we'll see. I still expect a much better season than 1994-1995, but like I said...if not, then back to the drawing board. But even @Allsnowis optimistic about January and February.

This season will be an interesting test because in my mind, the polar domain was all that separated this season from a year like 1994 or 2006...if winter goes onto suck anyway, then yea....I would rethink some things. That said, I am not concerned at this point.....December should have been mild.

I understand that the polar domain may be less important than it was 50 years ago, but its still a factor.

Yes, that was the underlying theme of my work. If we had a strong PV, then turn out the lights and and wait for spring training.

Kev's cousin.

Yea, no way. Maybe we brown sombrero our way to below normal snowfall, but it won't be for lack of chances.

And a couple of years ago, I would have missed that thinking it was too strong of an el Nino to warrant consideration.

We def. have trolls...but I think we all like to rib the other side a bit as the weather dictates...I mean, be honest...if we had stolen a big snow event this month, tell me you wouldn't be asking Allsnow and Bluewave if they could help shovel the 12" of MJO phase 5 off of your driveway Its all in good fun....same in sports. We are human. Its all about the scoreboard, as it dictates in which direction she shit gets blown.

I feel like you are the one adding emotion to it

One thing that I have learned is that you have to master the art of nuanced thinking with respect to seasonal forecasting...a couple of years ago, I would have only considered basin-wide, mod-strong el Nino analogs, but I have realized that it makes little sense to be so restrictive based upon only ENSO when there is such a wide assortment of factors working in concert around the globe to consider. This is why now I will also consider what has actually happened in terms of temp and precip patterns and potent el Nino seasons like 1982 and 2015 had value...1997 did not, IMO. Rigidity is your largest foe in seasonal forecasting....any forecasting, really. Keep an open mind and try with all of your might avoid becoming married to any single ideology.

Maybe that is what he believes? You like what you believe...and they do have scientific reasoning behind it..you just don't agree with it. I think they go overboard with a lot of it, too, but its logical.

Its a good fit for 2015 on the MODOKI spectrum and also in terms of sensible weather...this is why if you go back and look at my seasonal composite, 2015-2016 is in there. Remember, basin-wide events have a great deal of variability....its acting like a toned down version of 1997 now, but I do not expect that to continue. Its much weaker and more basin-wide...I think the favorable pattern will be more protracted than it was in 2016. 1997 never even got favorable in terms of sensible weather, which I do not expect.

Well, its also basin-wide....not Modoki. This is why in basin-wide events we often see the more canonical appeal present early on before the more Modoki like patterns establish later.

Well, I think most of us "like" posts that are congruent with our own beliefs....how many of those PAC jet posts do you like? Maybe he didn't agree with Will...it doesn't mean that he doesn't respect him.

I see your point....this is a toned down version of 1997 and 2015. Agreed.

Big difference between this year and 1994, as expected, is the PV...which bodes well for an ultimate deviation from that hapless winter season. But even February 1995 eventually had a nice stretch....my one good winter storm, which dropped about 1' in ne MA.

MJO456