We could also just luck out given the placement of that ridge out west, despite the hostile polar fields....ensembles have that vibe....EPS and GEFS. Interesting to watch. Trough placement may make it tough to hug too much, despite the look up north.
For all of the mocking of the NAO out of deference to the Pacific over the course of the last several years, this sequence is an illustration of the value of the NAO. That EURO OP output looks primed to bury upstate NY to me. Would be nice to lodge that PV a bit closer to Hudson Bay, as opposed to directly centered over Greeland...pretty hostile polar look there. The EPS is a little better.
I realize OP runs are futile right now....just looking.
That ridge is ideally placed out west.....only thing I don't love is a ridge also INVO 50/50....risks abound as far as track, but I understand the emphasis right now is on just sustaining a coherent storm signal. This storm today is precisely the type event that we usually get around xmas, so maybe somewhat of a different sequencing this year...we hope.
Yes, I cleaned up in March 2018...agreed.
Agreed on everything....I still think January deviates from that, but if I am wrong, I'll try to learn from why.
Yea, once the pattern went to shit lol...congrats to me on being the meteorological slum lord of SNE. Usually in no-man's land, though...bent over by your area last decade, not HubbDave to Dendrite this decade.
Getting 40" instead of 30" in a season does nothing for me...I'd rather not take the 12" dong to the face while everyone around me gets 2', but that's just me.
Don't think it will, but if it does, oh well....I had decent snowfall in January 2022 and last January I had one of the best events of my life. I expect a shitty season overall, but just going to take whatever I can get.