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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, its still December and nothing has changed yet.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is a pattern change from the entire CONUS and Canada void of cold, no? Look, I have never been in love with early January, but the fact of the matter is the wheels of change are in motion, regardless of the fact that east coast weenies can't instantly massage their prostate due to cold initially loading west. I have said all along it won't be a cold winter because the PDO is negative and el Nino is appreciably strong.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    People don't acknowledge a change until they shovel...what is getting "pushed back" and "can kicked" is the imminent chance for significant snowfall in said poster's BY.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still think it splits....but so far, this winter spits because it blows.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    What are the main climo sites at for temps around SNE?
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2016 was closer than PD I, but I could be wrong.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    And Breslow's first.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think a 2015 outcome would be the floor, but keep in mind that we had a monster just to the south.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is what I keyed in on.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree. I see nothing to get worked up over. And I know John isn't...just saying. I think we snooze until at least mid month and probably longer.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks seaward at the moment, but GEPS especially look to hold promise.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    It could be a temporary waning of the signal...like we often see with respect to storms in the medium range. I still think we see one. If it looks bleak by this weekend, then maybe time to reevaluate, but this is the type of season that should feature a SSW. Calling BS on the guidance for now.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yup.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    All that said, I am about ready to give up on much of anything in early January....what a bag of somewhat colder suck.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    30"? Sure.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is precisely the type of season capable of providing climo snowfall right up the coast clear into se coastal SNE in one system. Remember I said this about 4-6 weeks from now.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, especially for the southeast coastal areas and down through the tristate area into the mid Atlantic. People are just so frustrated right know that they aren't really able to view this objectively and fully appreciate how quickly ground can be made up relative to climo in one fell swoop.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Important thing is that the PV is weak....I'm just hoping for a SSW for verification purposes. Its by no means necessarily winter cancel if the PV isn't absolutely decimated.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    @forkyforkMade a great point in the NYC thread to the effect that most of the El Nino comeback seasons began to do so in the second half of January....two notable exceptions that I can think of being January 1966 and 1987. 1987 is a poor Pacific match, but 1966, which was my favorite analog, is not.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, yes, yes.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think December will be like +5 for us....I expected +1 to +3.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like the GEFS better for early January.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see that.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe we somehow eat a cosmic dildo again this season (doubt it), but that can't be foreseen.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    December was worse than I thought, but absolutely nothing has changed about my thoughts for the rest of the season. Zero....confidence is high.
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