40/70 Benchmark

Just need to close that off about 6 hours sooner. I could see it was being captured just by the surface depiction that was posted.

I have said this before, but the "slow crawl" crap doesn't really do much for amounts...it just gives Kevin fuel for his "days and days" rhetoric, but the good news is that he'll do it, regardless. The intense dynamics are exhausted within 12-18 hours, anyway in about 98% of systems.

I'm pretty sure it's transient, awyway.

That looks like its in the process of being captured.

Hey John, How is this issue mitigated? Would a larger PNA spike lower southeast heights? I would think a large enough PNA ridge increase would trigger a "tipping point" whereas more energy is conserved and a historic solution bursts into existence....

I do think he is brilliant, but at the end of the day we are all here to learn from one another. I'm not sure why he posts here if he is so paranoid about someone copying his work...nevermind the fact that he makes it a point to release a month before everyone else. Why would I write so much and not make a single cent from doing so just to copy somebody's composite maps...lol It makes zero sense. Funniest part is if I had used all +PDO analogs he would have called me an idiot...use -PDO analogs and I have copied him. Interesting guy.

EPS looks better, too...not really closer, but develops faster.

That storm looks like something from the 1993-1994 season....scooter snorting OES lines off of my corpse.

That is the storm.....it phases faster...gets us with a good CJ focused storm, then blows up in the Maritimes.

Moderate as is, but not far from orgasmic.

The whole system is more negatively oriented and coalesces faster.

This

That is one ominous trend from 12z.

This to me looks like the model struggling to congeal those parcels of energy.....really odd with multiple low pressure centers bounding around. I doubt it works out like that....this is fluid. I think we'll end up with a pretty good event.

Looks like one of those deals that funnels down drier air from ME right into MBY...pickles will love that if it sticks around.

Storm is back....

I like the ridge out west a bit better this run.

Would be time to find a new hobby.

Oh, I thought he meant ONI peak and monthly temps in the US.

First Call https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/first-call-for-light-snows-tuesday.html

First Call for Light Snows Tuesday; Larger Potential Looms Next Weekend Manageable Snows Overnight Tuesday Synoptic Overview This weekend's rain storm is becoming stuck underneath the negative NAO block, which will allow it to act as a polar vortex lobe. A modest piece of vorticity (energy) will rotate around the southern periphery of this system and trigger a round of light to potentially moderate snowfall overnight Tuesday. Anticipated Storm Evolution: Light snow or flurries should break out over southern portions of the region during the afternoon into the early evening. And become occasionally moderate overnight Tuesday night across the southeastern half of Southern New England. Before beginning to taper off after midnight and during the predawn hours of early Wednesday morning. And ending prior to the Wednesday AM commute. While it the Wednesday AM commute should be manageable, it would be wise to afford oneself some extra time. FIRST CALL: Looking Ahead to Potential Weekend Storm After the period of snowfall Tuesday night passes, all eyes shift to late next week into the weekend, as the PV lobe splits and a 50/50 low and potential east coast storm.

I would say C- IMBY, so far.

He is a passive aggressive antagonist....his position will usually be whatever he feels as though the majority doesn't want to hear.