40/70 Benchmark

The crap about the lack of cold is absurd. The issue is whiffing.

Your New Years resolution should be to make more sense.

It was nice of you to wish him a great new year at the end of all of that.

First Significant Winter Storm Threat Next Weekend Significant Differences Amongst Guidance Winter 2023-2024 has undoubtedly featured a slightly slower start than anticipated, as the end of what was a very mild month of December approaches on the eve of January 2024. And it looks as though winter may finally be preparing to make a grande entrance just one week into the new calendar year. Guidance is in early strong agreement that a lead system on Thursday will remain to the south of the region. However, the plot then thickens, as there is understandably much less of a consensus with respect to the follow up system next Sunday. Two Main camps The European ensemble suite: And the Canadien ensemble are both slightly faster to deepen the Western US trough, which results in an increase in Southeast heights down stream. This allows the wave to exit the coast at a higher latitude, which increases the threat of a winter storm for the southern New England forecast area. However, the European guidance depicts a slightly more amplified shortwave passing to the south of Long Island upon exiting the coast, which would result a major storm. Whereas the Canadien suite, while far enough north to impact the area, would suggest potentially more of a moderate winter storm. But the important note at this stage as that both pieces of guidance agree on a storm for the area next weekend, which in contrast to the GEFS, which suggests a near miss. The GFS ensemble suite is slower to amplify the western trough and thus has a delayed response with respect to increasing downstream heights over the southeastern US. This does not allow the system to gain as much latitude and results in a snowstorm for the mid Atlantic, but not much in the way of snowfall for most of southern New England. While it may ostensibly appear that the GFS suite is the outlier here, there is reason for pause before endorsing the snowier EURO/Canadien compromise. Tropical Nod to the GFS There is a strong consensus that the MJO will be entering phase 3 late this coming week and into next weekend. And progression of the MJO into phase 3 offers support for a slower amplification of the west coast trough more in line with the GFS suite. Although the ECMWF rapidly weakens the MJO wave in phase 3, it does still spend 3+ days in this area in the lead up to the period of interest on the 7th. The prudent course of action at this stage is to stay tuned throughout the week and plan on at least some snowfall next Sunday, especially to the south of the Mass pike and through Connecticutt and Rhode Island.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/12/first-significant-winter-storm-threat.html

EPS looks a shade south of OP.

Yea, I think he was trolling.

I just meant the OTS part....he must be trolling on the rain part.

EPS is well south of OP, but has a cluster near the OP.

I'd wait for the EPS....this could easily miss. One OP EURO at day 7.

January cancel cancel.

I'd like about a 90/10 compromise in favor of the EURO.

Ha...March 2001.....cute. I like where I stand from a consensus standpoint.

Would you rather more rain?

Get me to the 20th and see how things look.

Would be very 1973 to miss this whole period.

@bluewavehas presented research tying it to CC due to the West PAC warm pool.

That is actually a critique of a guidance suite....if forecasters feel as though the mean usually follows the OP, then it will be referred to as "non-dispersive".

I guess down the coast more it looks like a hugger distribution, but you can see how it runs into the block as it nears NE.

No, that is the point....what good would the ensemble mean be if that were the case? Sometimes it is, especially at less lead time, but the point of the perturbed members is to detect the degree of variance within the realm of physically plausible solutions and determine whether or not the OP makes sense.

That makes sense to me with a -PNA and -NAO.

I don't agree at all. That looks like a SWFE/revedeveloper pattern....look how the cape does better than much of CT.

Because the OP is essentially another ensemble member.....all the ensembles are is runs with slightly perturbed initial conditions.

Last March would have been perfect even with a medium -PNA, but that west coast trough was historic.