40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I think the teleconnection forecast to a degree helps to determine whether performance/snowfall forecast was due to skill or luck....akin to run differential. For instance, last year I was very accurate with all of the teleconnections, but it just didn't snow. in 2014-2015, I totally whiffed on the polar domain, but hit on the snow....last year I was unlucky and in 2014-2015 I was lucky.
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Yea, the first half of winter was warmer than everyone imagined....including Raindance and probably Omega if he's being truthful...never published anything.
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I mean the season in the aggregate when all is said and done.
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Yea, part of the fun in it...same with sports. Skill has something to do with it, but at the end of the day you live and die by the bounce of the ball/puck. Once the buzzer sounds and the clock strikes "April", you look to the scoreboard.
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I think that warm stretch will be pretty transient....the pace of the MJO has been under modeled all season.
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You should establish a business counseling married guys on how to escape lol
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I realize this, but I think there is something to be said for picking out patterns that either fail to succeed in produce...and raindance was adamant that this season would fail here not due to temps, but just kind of a porking. I respect that if it plays out. I may end up wishing that I really did copy him hahahahha
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Yea, coming from the west and south is even worse than the north, I think...or so I have heard.
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I think @donsutherland1may have the right idea....he had like 27" at Boston. But the big question is what @Donald Sutherlands Eyebrowthinks?
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I have heard coming into Boston from the south is even worse.
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January 1966 had about 10.5" in Boston at this point of the month....one damn good event there is all I would need to feel good.
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I honestly am rooting your area now...had my fun. Just don't get carried away and grab 3' while I get 12" of exhaust.
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Problem is, I need to be wrong about March...my window does run into very early March, so maybe that could work. We need that great PAC look for Feb to hold.
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Looking at climo data, we are still pretty much on pace with 1958 if Boston could grab like 3" today. This is the time of year where I begin to weight climo data more heavily than the outlook....gotta start to look at the scoreboard after halftime.
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This is totally reasonable and I agree.
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@brooklynwx99I need an H5 porn....hot and heavy, hit me with it.
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Yea, I could see another nuisance day, sure.
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The chances of a huge comeback are taking a very large hit this week from a climatological standpoint and that can not be ignored. Does it mean that we won't have an enjoyable month of February? No and I think that we will....but I am starting to doubt that 1958 or 1966 is walking through that door. I do not have snow goggles on when I take these stances, nor do I remain fixed to an idea despite emerging data to the contrary.
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Ha...I'm from Wilmington...yea, that is a long commute. It actually wasn't awful for me coming from Methuen to Chelsea today...probably speaks to the ineffectual nature of this "storm".
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Eh....I saw Raindance point out in his analogs many of the -PDO seasons that just didn't want to snow in this area...admitted that he couldn't explain it. Say what you want about him personally, but I really give credit there if this doesn't turn around. But I guess since I apparently copied him, I can take credit, too?
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Credit Raindance and Omega on that....call it a lucky guess, call it outstanding forecasting, whatever you wish...but they were all over this season inventing ways to not snow in SNE. This is aside from MBY...not complaining in a personal level.
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Its very frustrating when you nail certain aspects of the season, like blocking, several months out, but the atmosphere just seeks out ways to not snow, anyway. December was a brutal Pacific, sure....but this is just brutal luck.
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I did not think we would come up empty this week, nuisance snows not withstanding. That moves the needle for me.
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Totally respect that....but my commute is over an hour on a "good day".
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Essentially whiffing on this week was not a good sign. Theoretically speaking, we still have plenty of time, but many of the backloaded El Nino seasons were off to the races prior to the close of January. If we don't have a major region wide event prior to or imminent by the start of February, then its time to panic.
