40/70 Benchmark

That is at least partially a by product of the forcing being so far west with this El Nino due to the boiling west PAC.

I like that higher heights look to build in AK next month...that has killed us.

One thing I think we will want to avoid is rainers....hope the mild first half of the month is dry. Operating under the premise that precip will in fact be at a premium, then we can't waste it. If we cram it all into the last week or two of the month, then it can still be fun.

Right.....EPO/WPO.

Well, you could say the same thing about temps, but 'alas.....CC.

This is has been a blockier and warmer version of 1972-1973.

The CFS is dry for February.

The lows of the 1980s were worse for my area, but it wasn't this consistently subpar.

Yea, it looked thay was to me since last fall, but at this point....I need to see it actully bare fruit. One thing I give @raindancewxa great deal of credit for was identifying that uncanny ability of -PDO El Nino seasons to avoid big NE snows at least excuse imaginable....even when temps were not prohibitive.

Man, I don't know about you...but I have endured my 1980s decade....not sure what you else you would call my winter experience since March 2018. There is no way in hell that regression from this point forward should be a bad thing in terms of snowfall....I think we have just about past the point where I have signed Mr. Regression to play on my team.

I have been on the warm March train all season...but we'll see. Love to be wrong on that.

I think he just meant in terms of temps and below average snowfall.

We'll see what happens.....there is still room for a 1958 like flip, at least to a degree in terms of snowfall. It will not be that cold, no.

Except that pattern in mid late January was pretty text book.

Yes there was.

There are some similairties with respect to the cold being in Eurasia, but you can't complely disregard the differences, which is probably why the mid atlantic is near normal snowfall as opposed to that year, which saw just about no snow there.

I would say if I had to point to a "smoking gun", so to speak....it would be the +EPO.....that is probably why it has been so warm. But even with the warmth, there have been chances to snow..January left a lot on the table and I still had nearly 30". I feel like have been pretty accurate with respect to the El Nino, polar fields and the PDO/PNA.

I need something to break right....I feel like the last two years, last season and this one, I have had damn good seasonal efforts that just haven't amounted to anything where it counts...snowfall. I feel like I have largely had the pattern right, but it just refuses to snow. You try to point out great looks to validate the forecast and it just gets eye rolls.

+2.5" Sunday-Monday 27.5"

Yea, that would be the grand finale to this season....a Feb 2010 reenactment.

Well, at the risk of drawing a slew of jagged eye roles, I have liked mid Feb through early March since last fall. But will I be suprised if we get boned again? Nope.

@RUNNAWAYICEBERGJust about time to start draft coordination.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/poorly-forecast-sunday-monday-storm.html D Versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call:

Poorly Forecast Sunday-Monday Storm Here are the final snowfall amounts from the storm that began on Sunday and ended early this morning. Versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call: The forecast across the elevated far interior was fairly accurate, however, the snowfall was significantly over forecast across the densely coastal plane of the eastern and souther portions of the region. More specifically, 1-3" fell where 2-5" was forecast along the immediate coast of eastern Mass. And 4-7" was forecast instead of the 2-5" that fell across interior Eastern Mass, throughout the route 128 and 495 belts. The gradient was also sharper than forecast across southern Connecticut, Rhode Island, the cape islands., where little to no snowfall accumulated rather than the 1-3" forecast. The primary reason for the forecasting failure is that the precipitation never grew heavy enough to overcome very marginal temperatures. This was an issue that was flagged on much of guidance prior to the event, as evidenced by fairly weak lift that was not colocated within the favored snow growth region in the mid levels of the atmosphere, which is between approximately 12 and -18C. As it turned out this bette lift did in fact materialize, but it further north across central New Hampshire, where several inches did fall last night. Final Grade: D