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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, Boston did fine...I just got screwed.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    2017-2018 was my last good winter....I was still over 10" below average snowfall in 2020-2021.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Which site do you guys prefer for H5 charts from past dates?
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    It feels good to give in and have weenies replaced by heart emojis from the warm crew...I could get use to this for next year.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Move on and hand out some parking tickets.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    It obviously wouldn't help alter the Pacific SSTs....that is more of an infuence with respect to the extra tropical atmosphere to favor more ridgin over the western CONUS and troughing east. You can see it clear as day in Raindance's data.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its affecting everything...absolutely.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, no argument from me on that for March. Looks toasty here.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I thought it was Tip
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    There aren't many in my life worse than this one...top of head: 1991-1992, 1994-1995, 2001-2002 and 2011-2012 Honorable Mention for 1998-1999 and 1999-2000
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    We do.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's one thing to be have insight into CC, it's another entirely to correctly account for it in a seasonal forecast. The latter is my issue....not in denial about anything.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    We could have had a big storm or two with some luck IMO.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not sure how you could forecast something that extreme at a seasonal level.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Exactly. Goes to show not only how warm it was, but how unlucky we were.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    You don't know anything until you realize how little you know.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    One thing I have learned to watch for is that bathtub off of Japan during outlook season. I have been doing this a decade, but still have so much to learn....really starting to expand my scope to a gloabl level when seeking out indicators.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not sold on strong yet...it could be moderate. ..but with a very active tropical season I think the floor next year is maybe like 1998-1999, which is still a bit better than this year for most. Funny, you would think I had a great forecast by just eyballing the forecast H5 composite vs reality, but it just didn't translate.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am reluctant to gve credit to folks who don't publish a seasonal effort, but I read enough from you and Bluewave to know that you asbolutey nailed the impact of that west PAC warm pool this year. Nice recognition of that. I will also credit snowman for the super El Nino call that eeked out, but I do not agee with him that this season was warm due to El Nino.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    The way things have been going, we will. But since we didn't see an El Nino pattern this winter, hopefully not. Agreed on active....only question is will we top 200 IMO...which is a crucial number for me in terms of winter.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am 10.5" shy of last year....but honestly, I would take this year due to Jan 7....keep the extra 10.5" that likely feel over 8 seperate 2-hour commutes in February and March.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Honestly, if I had realized the blocking would have been ABSOLUTELY trivial, then 1972-1973 would have been my top analog. I doubled up on it, as it was.
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