40/70 Benchmark

I may lose it if we find our way to February with nothing imminent after having succeeded in pulling that off....this is about the point at which I came unhinged last year.

This little pack is really resilient with the ice crust on top...

The EURO NARCAN has 2" down to between the MA/CT border and I 84 and 1" down to I84.

Yes, because they don't have the ferocity to induce significant upwelling.....but you know mean, I am always reflecting on larger events.

I'll bet I have a wedgie Thursday...hopefully no one picks it.

My pet peeve is when people post Sea SURFACE anomaly charts within the context of tropical discussions.......repeat after me.....Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential.

Fascinating discussion....sorry to be so IMBY centric, but I think the discussion point translates to others, as well.

Don't forget January 2022...

That is how I have alway felt.

Man, CC is pissah.....mutant phase 5 that swallows the world and only leaves -PDO....and every major snowstorm that we do get is a CJ. Hopefully I have dementia in 30 years, so weather will still be fun.

But does what I suggested makes sense? John seemed to think so.

Honestly contemplating whether this area will be a relative snow pit for the next 40, 50 years....plan on upgrading one more time soon and then that is it.

Shit, maybe I should relocate to the N shore.

My son was born then....it was frigid and dry...like 12 below here.

Yea, it's a relative snow min, but still beats the hell out of SNE....they actually were a jackpot zone in the December 2020 orgy, though....got into that band from NYS before it died.

I suggested last year to Will and Scott that perhaps my area getting boned relative to the region for so long was a some sort of manifestation of CC, but I couldn't quite articulate why....this would be the smoking gun, IMO.....less marginal events, which is where my area shines relative to the coast. An increasingly large percentage of our heavier snow events are coming during arctic infiltration, which leaves my area prone to that FU sliver of drier air from Maine that couples with subsistence downwind from the ascent from coastal front shenanigans to foster a relative min in snowfall for my area in larger events. We would ironically enough see more coastal, CJ jackpots in this situation as a result of CC. Fun k me.

My sister lives in N Charlestown.

I spent a great deal of time in Heniker growing up.

I have noticed that most on the board get too caught up in shorter term fluctuations and allow it to bias perception of ultimate ONI peak. This isn't directed at just you, but so much waffling has gone one....super very unlikely, to lamest a lock a few weeks ago to now less likely again. I get that its tough because its right near the line, but.... Still like the top of my 1.7 to 1.9 ONI range from June.

Light Wintry Mix Tuesday-Wednesday Ushers in Milder Week: Next Major Threat Looms End of Month Messy Mid Week On Tap Synoptic Overview As is often the case, there will be a price to pay in order to transition the pattern from the very cold conditions of this past week. Indeed, the retreating arctic cold will remain in place long enough to ensure a wintery start to mid week precipitation, as implied last week. A modest parcel of energy will be weakening on approach as it breaks off from the amplifying western trough and around the periphery of the building Western Atlantic ridge in response to the deep Western trough. Note the compressed flow between the departing polar vortex lobe that supplies the cold this weekend and the building western Atlantic ridge that triggers the warm up next week, which will act to shear the approaching wave apart. However, it may deposit a light snowfall over the northern half of the region and thus cause some slight travel delays from Tuesday into Wednesday before it dissipates and warmer air moves in. Anticipated Storm Evolution Mixed precipitation should enter the forecast area late Tuesday afternoon and evening. And continues as occasional light snow north of the Mass pike and mixed precipitation south of the Mass pike overnight into Wednesday morning. Before ending as rain showers Wednesday afternoon. And resuming as rainfall across the entire region with the next more potent wave on Thursday. FIRST CALL: A final update will be issued on Tuesday. Looking Ahead to Major Late Month Storm Potential The first of two potential major storm windows this winter was identified last fall as the period between January 23 and February 6. And while it is far from certain that this potential will be realized, there is strong agreement amongst the three main ensemble suites that a potent western ridge will amplify right in the the middle of the identified window of opportunity, on approximately January 30. More updates will be provided as needed with respect to this potential over the course of the next week.

First Call for this Dumpster fire and a brief intro of the late month potential. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/light-wintry-mix-tuesday-wednesday.html

I just had a dusting tonight.

Man, this system for Tuesday night is hardly discernible....

Can't stay safe enough!!

Well, one of those and a moderate event, then I am just about to normal.