40/70 Benchmark

Just because you want to travel to east-bum for snow....frankly, if it isn't going to snow IMBY, then just torch it.

Just wait and see, I guess....I know the "warm blob" was the supposed CC related trend last decade. CC is definely real and having an impact, but the key is understranding exactly what said impact is.

So you think that CC is predisposing the Pacific to a -PDO configuration....

Hopefully we can get a HECS rolling next month.

Glad you guys finally caught a break...enjoy!

Half past Mount Tolland's ass.

Yea, I have had 24" this month....last January was actually respectbale here, too....latitude FTW.

That is what I am getting at by poor multidecadal signal.

Its a combo piece....CC, poor multi decadal Pacific background and bad luck.

Your take is totally reasonable. Not a great look, but some servicable interludes.

Adjust for CC, and you get a reduction in lower heights over the southeast.

Man, 1973.

Really is the Pacific that drives the bus....I remember last decade we had a string of +NAO winters and we just kept rocking because of the Pacific....now its the opposite. We keep getting ineffectual blocking with a shit Pacific. That said, some of it is bad luck and yes...CC doesn't help.

I was about to respond...its one bad suite. Sure, its a very realistic concern, but people need to be mindful of this fatalistic thought process that has resulted from the shitty stretch we have been in. Its climo coldest point and Canada is cold...I'm not sold on crap...at least at my locale.

I've had March cancelled since November....hope I'm as wrong about March as I may be about February.

Man, this place is a bloodbath this AM...glad I tuned out last night.

I still think the MJO will speed up, but we'll see.

I have seen plenty of SWFE patterns that favored from around the pike points northward and even I 84...just depends and if there is ever a time for cold to get the jump climo wise, its these next few weeks.

Usually both...I think the late 90's were genuinely worse than the 80s, which had some bad luck.

This argues for forcing progressing westward.

TBH, I won't be surprised if I see 100% rain or 100% snow...not very insightful, I know...but just depends where the boundary sets up.

Maybe you end up correct, but this latitude can do just fine with a +AO/NAO and cold Canada......December 2007 is a perfect example.

I afforded myself an "out clause" next week in yesterday's blog.... However, the primary difference between this milder period and the stretch earlier in the season is that the higher heights should be focused across the northeastern CONUS, as dictated by the aforementioned tropical forcing. The is in sharp contrast to the period in December, in which a potent Pacific jet eradicated the entire North American continent of cold air. This means that while the pattern will certainly grow much milder, the cold air source will remain nearby and thus wintry threats cannot be ruled out

It would be nice to make lemonade from a lemon set up, instead of making lactose intolerant rhea from a hot fudge Sundae set up for once.