40/70 Benchmark

I mean for a stretch mid month...not the whole season.

That is what I predicted for January....we'll see. I liked 1966, 1987 and 2003 in terms of snowfall distribution. 1966 best match meteorologically speaking.

I think they will....it's like 2007-2008 in terms of sensible weather, but different metoorologically....back then it was very -EPO and +NAO/AO, whereas this time it's -NAO/AO and -PNA.

I never lost power in April 1997...suprised.

Yea, it sucks we are contending with that huge trough out west, but it was always clear there would be some that this year.

I'm not shitting on you.....I just knew I was toast. Like you know your climo down on the s shore....same for me up here.

Look how next week's inside runner augments that huge NAO block via wave breaking and poleward heat flux...that is going to put up one hell of a fight mid month against what will be a very hostile tropics....could be a 2007-2008 like stretch far enough north.

Don't be fooled....it's taking a circuitous route to get there due to the residual cool ENSO GLAAM that continues to offer resistance at times, but this winter is going to offer some downright violent potential once things evolve later this month and into early February. I am not one for hyperbole at this stage of my life, but there just isn't any other way to articulate what I am envisioning.

I feel the same what that I did in August. Confident.

I knew by about 9am...scooter tried getting me to hallucinate hope into existence, but I was like "no way". I went to bed and slept from like 10am to 4pm....woke up....looked out the window and didn't regret it for a moment. That was neck and neck with 12/05/03 as the largest disappointment for me...but I still give the edge to 2003 because that was more of a mesoscale pork-job.

I wouldn't be at all shocked to see a February 2010 Snowmageddon repeated somewhere.

It's going to be an uphill battle next week with that deep trough amplifying out west.....probably a front end 2-5" over the interior is a reasonable goal.....and it will get mild mid month as the MJO goes through the MC....but once that circles back around to the favorable phases after about the 20th and the PV begins drifting back eastward, there is going to be some absolutely astronomical potential. A guy I chat with online was mentioning the late January 1978 evolution with that OV inside runner and I can see it. This is going to be one hell of a ride.

Well, that wasn't a large leap of faith

I'm finally to the point where I have enough experience that I really only lose it in the huge events.... I think the last one that broke me was the January 2022 Flizzard.

I could see this coming with that bonkers 12z run.....people are going to have unrealistic expectations. Take 6" of snow and sprint with this system.

Does it really matter if the PV splits, anyway? Maybe a wind reversal would make it tougher to recover, but other than that.....who cares? I mean, don't get me wrong....I would rather get the reversal, but I don't think its crucial.

How far was that from you and how much did you get?

Its terrible...being called an imbecile just because the football players gave pope a wedgie on prom night.

Seems like in forever since we have gotten away with one of those periods a la 2007.

From that visual of Paul...boy, times are tough

Moth cancel.

...And as you do, careen the hand down from the belly button....slowly at first, then a more concerted move.

How do you think this impacts the gypsy moth population this spring?

I didn't even look at soundings yet...save that for Saturday.

Yea...if you look at my first map, that is why being that enhanced 5-10" band in CT and on NE.