40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Fingers crossed....man, I long for that lol -
This can't be right....strong consensus for NE MA bullseye.....I'm frightened.
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You scoured the depth of the NCEP lab to come up with something bucking the N trend lol
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Maybe cause for celebration.....hitting the 40s with a box of poptarts adorned in the Cap'n Crunch jammies
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Yea, this is the opposite of what he implied. lol
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That is like the antichrist of my methodology...shifting the JP north into my own BY? Eh....
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El Nino 2023-2024
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Exact premise of my winter forecast. This blocking is not characteristic of major east-based El Nino events, which is the difference I kept harping on. Yes, the -PDO is similar to some of them, which is acknowledged. There are years with both, such as 1965-1966, which is a great analog. This was clear to me last summer. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/august-enso-update-potential.html -
El Nino 2023-2024
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Season it pretty much going as planned, so far....disturbed polar domain with -PDO...hopefully it yields some decent results as expected. -
Its the obsession over the tendency for blocks to be displaced southward....while its important to remain mindful of it, you need to be careful about dismissing the notion of blocking and assuming that will continue to be the case moving forward.
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Yea...perception....look at all of the people bashing the models on social media last night and today...most from southern PA, MD and NJ/NYC.
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Well, that's arousing...
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Maybe? Kinda? Sorta?
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I don't anticipate large scale changes from the Wednesday AM map.
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I meant aside from Kevin...like Scott and Will, for instance.
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Coastal NE looks to do pretty well. Your post is otherwise reasonable, but you seem to go to great lengths to marginalize the fact that many areas are seeing a significant snowstorm. Imperfect scenarios yield snowfall quite often in any given winter...just like reasonably good patterns yield nothing in bad ones, like last season (March).
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To be fair, I haven't been looking long term much this week with the impending storm. The PNA not responding as hoped/expected is more of a risk than a strong PV, agreed....I guess if that were to happen, then hope you are far enough north to avail of the blocking.
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Well, "hard to get to normal" isn't necessarily ratter.
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I think they mean that in the really good seasons, you will catch some breaks in an imperfect stretch...so you have the "tenor" of the winter to consider, as well as the simple fact that it makes it easier to have a good season mathematically speaking because there is less ground for February to make up from a climatological snowfall standpoint.
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I'm just breaking your balls lol Nothing unreasonable about that.
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I look forward to that...hopefully at least one of them takes a vested interest instead of looking at me cross-eyed like the general populous God, just give one "the sickness" to take over the blog once I start drooling on myself lol
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Not really when you consider this wasn't a large scale event deeply rooted in a long wave signal...this is the type of system where little idiosyncrasies with respect to SW interactions have disproportionately large results on sensible appeal for many areas.
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I love that this will be a wet snow...my favorite type. Thankfully my 2 year old is recovering after a recent health scare and will be able to have him out with me while shoveling...sick children really put this shit into perspective.
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This is why NWS remains conservative until the last possible moment....there are subtle ebbs and flows in guidance that have relatively large impacts on sensible results and are not worth compromising consistency until very late in the game.
