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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anyone know why this IOD link isn't updating, and where the updated numbers are? https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not one tropical post on my blog...first year that has happened since I started it in 2015. Erin was always a non-threat in my mind, so didn't see fit....if I had more time I probably would have made a post detailing why I was dismissing it early on, but that's it.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was thinking yesterday how 2025 is the most boring weather year of my life. Absolutely dong for notable weather....nothing. Incrediable quiescence in the tropics....no notable snow events. Unless we have a good December, this is the most boring year by far. 1991 had Bob....1990 had the March ice storm....1989 had the Thanks Giggity (Hi, Tip) snowstorm.....maybe 1988 could challenge? But at least that had Gilbert to distract me a bit-
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Problem is that since SE Canada hasn't been cold, you have had to get up to about Manchester, NH to benefit much from those...this is why I haven't sniffed normal seasonal snowfall since 2017-2018. Last year SE Canada was colder, but it was so dry that it didn't matter. I think we can at least get the SWFE gradient back closer to I 90 again this year.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    In much cruder terms, yes....but I didn't really understand it. Christ, I look back at my stuff from 3-4 years ago and am in awe at how clueless I was....and suspect I'll do the same in 3-4 more years with any luck. While this can be construed as self-deprecation, it's also a sign of growth, insight and a capacity for self-reflection, so I'm quite okay with it-
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree with this. This is why although I think we will do "better" than many recent seasons, there is still a "cap" on cold/snowfall potential. While I do believe that 2013-2014 is a vaible analog in some respects, I do not expect a carbon copy of that season, and what you have just pointed out is a large reason why.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, right....the western warm pool incites convective action over the MC, which mimics cool ENSO. No argument there....all I was saying is that it's easier to get a cool ENSO like expression than it is warm ENSO....but we require a stronger ENSO signal for it to be the primary catalyst these days, yes.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the opposite is true for La Nina....which is what the RONI reflects. The surrounding atmosphere is more of an impediment for the expression of warm ENSO.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not the case for New England. You tend to speak as though your climo applies to everyone.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have no clue why he is obsessing over the ONI...it's a La Nina, regardless.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice consensus emerging-
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree completely with this...with the added caveat that I could see a northern stream KU that wouldn't do much for the mid atl.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hey, I'm north of Boston and have become a winter voyeur myself
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think this season can still safely be lumped into the solar max bin.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Mild Autumn doesn't particularly concern me.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this is precisely what I thought of. I think they are in error this time, but we shall see. CFS and CANSIPS are relatively cold.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    So essentially seasonals defaulting to the prevalent regime of the past decade.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not sure what you are saying here....Models favor Pacific trough? I think they are wrong on that.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks to be an Alaskan Ridge season to me.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I suggest you guys read though some of these...especially the seasonal guys. https://simonleewx.com/2023/08/09/north-american-weather-regimes-a-summary-so-far/#:~:text=The regimes data are available on Zenodo.,with unusually warm conditions across North America I know Bluewave and some others already have. I'm going to go through these before I begin my seasonal work next month.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's a possibility this year-
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that is about is quickly as you will ever see it, so agreed.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gotta hope for a drastic flip later in the autumn....2007 pulled it off.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Anomalies of that magnitude will never be adequately signaled in long term guidance....obviously given CC said anomalies are usually warm rather than cold these days.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we'll see a month that is decidedly positive.
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