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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    So you need more evidence to conclude that February and March usually suck in a La Nina??
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nailed my spot...8"
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get that...I think it's wrong. It doesn't have to mean a blizzard...all I am saying is that I'm confident January is +PNA in the mean....maybe it not positioned properly, etc....but it won't be a -PNA month.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Mid January I think that will change...
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...near the solar min....seasons that average negative NAO in the mean have been declining in frequency, but the time to get them is ascending solar near solar min.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not you....the sentiment behind the post.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    No, actually IMBY, they couldn't.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still don't think the the seasonal NAO values were as low in the aggregate as they were in past negative NAO decadal cycles.....seasons that actually average negative in the DM mean are pretty sparse and relegated to intervals surrounding the solar min at this point...that said, maybe this year pulls it off.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, def. a very bad sign if we don't get anything major in the next two weeks.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Either Jan 2024 or 2022
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    What I will say is that I think guidance is underselling the emergence of the PNA...I can see this storm burgeoning back into existence with relatively little lead time when that correction is made.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't understand why energy congealing near the east coast ends up being delayed until the Maritimes as a result of the fast flow, but a developing eastern lakes or NYS bomb doesn't end up near the east coast...is there a gap in the flow or something?
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was just hoping for at least some virtual excitement by this point, and all I am left with is a clipper that will produced a mini CJ as the dong drops on my grape on NYE.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Explain to me like I am 5 years old why a fast flow makes favorable tracks for the midwest and Maritimes more likely than the east coast...the west warm pool, I understand....
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Okay, sure...yes. I agree....slow start doesn't prohibit a good stretch, which I still expect, regardless. I am just referring to the ultimate seasonal total.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't see why a faster flow is more likely to place the trough axis unfavorably for the east coast relative to any other area of the globe.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it's still dependent on the trough axis, Paul.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you are conflating what I am saying, JD.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    That isn't meteorology, it simply climatology and arithmetic.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is what it is...I don't change anything. But the numbers don't lie if it doesn't snow soon. Keep in mind I am speaking strictly about the seasonal total...this doesn't mean that there won't bee good storms at all from here on out and/or it will be warm. Not at all.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like a very real shot of not much at all heading into like January 10th....I'm not a mathematician, but I have 8" now...carry the one, tie the noose.... then take a look at years with that kind of total headed into mid January and it's non-negotiable. It's easy to bury your head in a pillow, click your heels together, and blindly state it's too early....until you actually look at the numbers, good forbid if you can bring yourself to be objective,
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    You need to take a look at climo with single-digits snowfall into January....
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Getting perilously close to the point at which I can just about guarantee an unprecedented 8th consecutive dud-winter for MBY.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I also don't see the need for all of the hype right now....I see nothing exciting in terms of threats.
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