40/70 Benchmark

Yes, the issue was definitely increased stability...which may have been for a couple of reasons.

I think it's the same issue that plagued my seasonal forecasting during the 2023-2024 El Nino season...folks need to reevaluate more archaic methods of forecasting given the rate at which the modern climate is changing. I don't think forecasters take into account the redued gradient between the sub tropics and the tropics enough, which stifles convective instability. We are warming more rapidly with latitude.....just like nights are warming more rapidly than days. The general warming of the oceans outiside of ENSO also alters the equations, which is something that I failed to appreciate. Remeber...weather happens because of the gradients that result from the redistribution of heat....nothing else. Alter that gradient and conventional forecasting methods will not work.

Don't accept next time Scooter invites you over for nude holiday twister.

The loss of "fake cold" is how the majority of CC manifests...and we know how very real that phenomenon is.

Gonna get the plow on to clear some frost?

27.5. That should do it for the bugs and growing season.

I'll be absolutely floored if my area doesn't do better.

IOD/WPO correlation. I don't doubt the La Nina correlation....Modoki favors positive NAO/flat Aleutian ridging and EP is more favorable for negative NAO/poleward Aleutian ridging. Anyway, obviously exceptions with regard to both correlations. I would favor weak +WPO/NAO in the DJFM mean this season.

Low of 39.7. Back up to 44.6

Just eyeballing.......while I don't doubt the correlation, there are plenty of exceptions.

Correct. This place is much more reasonable and grounded than mainsteam social media.

Should end any residual delusions of grandeur regarding the ultimate intensity of this cool ENSO event.

That said, while I don't expect a supernova strength PV this year, it should be a positive NAO in the seasonal mean.

It was also a Modoki La Nina....nothing is in a vacuum.

I think the analog does have some utility....it's a great ENSO analog....but there are also some glaring limitations; namely the solar cycle and the western Pacific.

I know...was sarcastically operating off of the premise that the SAI is correlated to winter. I wasn't refuting anthing...don't worry, I'm not trying to steal your CC.

Still 63.1 at home...front probably through in about an hour or so..

Yea, the trick has been pulling this off during the actual cold season....the shoulder seasons of fall and spring have been more prone to traditional blocking patterns, likely owed to the shorter wave lengths rendering Rosby waves less vulnerable to Pac jet intrusions.

Eh, can't win 'em all.

Yea, the loop will be over western CT in a couple of months.

I thought it was after Opal....I remember the frist snow event for my area was a rain to snow mess in latter November, which lest a few inches of slush.

Poor Taylor...the mere sight of that may end her career faster than Kelce's.

Bun me now....this is just anecdotal, nothing more....but I do recall 1995 flipping on a dime from mild to cooler and stormy around this time.

Ginxy is gonna do naked Gibbous moon tide dances