40/70 Benchmark

I think it will be tough for VA.

I agree with what you are saying, but I highly doubt this "screw zone" is permanent...part of the issue has been the lack of cold in SE Canada, which seems to be changing, so there will be more snow indepenedent of BM blizzards.

Absolutely. Makes perfect sense. My guess is that we can, but will have to "make hay", so to speak in reduced intervals of time relative to similar patterns in the past.

Your contention is that the warm pool creates a +WPO pattern that promotes both a western storm track, and a fast jet that knocks down PNA ridges/shears phasing attempts and causes suppression, correct?

Yes. I agree with the vast majority of what you are saying.

I think the strat may offer some assistance late season, but if it doesn't, all bets are off. I will posting my thoughts early next week....a great deal of time is spent addressing many of the CC related issues that @bluewaveraises.

I am referring you the attribution aspect and what it means moving forward, but will leave it at that because nothing constructive will come of it.

I actually like February better than most of January.

Here is a snippet from my outlook, which I'm still balls deep in. So much for the warm pool ending La Nina prematurely. During the month of October, there was some speculation in certain weather circles that La Niña may meet a premature demise owed to an encroachment of the subsurface warm pool from the west. However, Eastern Mass Weather cited the strong Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as well as a precedent for a the subsurface cold pool to recover after a retreat to the east during last summer as protective factors against an earlier than forecast peak. Comparisons were also made to the subsurface of the 2008, which had similar subsurface warmth on the western flank and still did not peal until mid winter. This has analysis has ultimately proven correct, as the subsurface warmth has reclaimed much of the western flank of region 3.4 and event some of region 4 on the heels of consistent trades bursts

My honest opinion that he exagerates some of this stuff moving forwards, but to be fair to him, the jury is still out.

Odds are the strat would only save New England for he second half, not the mid atl.

I think January will have a considerable period of +TNH, but likely outweighted by a Pac jet dominated torch prior.

The back half will depend on the strat....look at al of the big 2nd half cool ENSO seasons...just about everyone was strat induced.

Just poking fun....I don't mean to imply there is no truth to it; I know you don't make stuff up.

2000-2001 was great for the interior NE, but yea....nothing is absolute.

Enter Bluewave with the modled Pac jet being the storngest of the past several on the Euro seasonal "We'll have to see if the temp composites adjust to account for that as they have the last 7 years in this new, warmer climate".

Take your pick form the last several lol I think the EPS was actually better with that? I thought GFS was worst and Australian was best.

I don't feel like there is any piece of data that you wouldn't be able to come up with a fatalistic take on.

The impact of the IOD is so nebulous...I feel like every attribution to that is voodoo. The only thing I hang my hat on is that it serves as a protective factor for the development of cool ENSO.

Second year Nina seasons don't necessarily have to be awful, though...71-72, 08-09...

Odds are we won't see consecutive strongly +PNA la Nina seasons....end of story.

February 06 was largely luck...pattern was awful. March 2006 was actually better, but ended up cold and dry.

Oh, my bad. I thought you meant in general.

Why???