40/70 Benchmark

I like Wxbell's graphics the best....SV has just always had the best loading time, but that gap maybe closing.

I see what you are saying, but this is worse IMO....mischaractrerizing a storm due to mesoscale banding is more forgivable than lumping an entire season in with some of the least snowy when it was one of the more prolific just to the north.

You have a bad habit of applying your own back yard experience to everyone else. 2012-2013 was a fantastic season throughout SNE, with the largest blizzard since 1978.

@bluewaveWhich composite were you using to show the increased Pacific jet since 2018-2019? It doesn't seem that evident here...not doubting you. Just looking for a graphic that illustrates it better.

Full defense (mechanism) mode.

You were pretty pessimistic the last couple of years.

Don, excellent work. Defeitely jives with a lot my stuff. While I did see value in 2012-2013, I felt like there was a bit too much of a warm ENSO flavor for inclusion, at least early on in the season.

Yea, this is what I was getting at...I see what raindance is saying on it not mattering as much for the particulars, but it's tough to a great phase on the east coast without it. It can still happen if it's mainly N stream, bu that takes a lot of folks essentially out of the game.

I do see some signs that there maybe some late redevelopers.

Looks like Wxbell is beeffing up this season...soundings and faster load times, among other things.

-NAO can actually be more of a hinderance up here on average....but as we say, there are exceptions. NAO is often more about modulating duration up here. I think the PNA is actually pretty crucial to high-end events, especially south of NYC, but even up here to an extent. Tough to dig enough in the absence of a well placed ridge out by Idaho or there abouts.

The drought certainly hasn't been worsening in southern New England.

There is a reason why I void at least 3 times throughout the day before squatting.

I have considered 2021-2022 as a mismatch season. Yes, the PNA will be lower than last season, which isn't saying much...it was very high. I definitely see similarities to 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.

Absolutely...I equate it to squats in weightlifting.....it's the goliath of lifts, but it's so dependent upon balance, stability and mobility....all of these minute details that are requisite for the unleashing of such fury.

Kind of analagous to how warmer temps do not equate to smaller snow storms, unless you live....here, apparantly lol. But these frontier concepts get oversimplified.

BTW, this concept isn't, or shouldn't be unique to the SAI, either....it's pretty universally folly to base a seasonal outlook on any one factor...the more eclectic, exhaustive and multiperspective, the better-

We need the "sick brag, bro" clip from WEEI

I think the "fraudulent" claims are too far on the other end...like most elements of research concerning seasonal forecating, it's importance was initially overstated due to a combination of our lust for skill in this arena combined with today's overzealous portrayal on social media. It has it's value if used properly in concert with a multitude of other factors, but said value was undoubtedly intially overstated. I usually give it a shout out near the end of the polar section of my final outlook, but it's more of a confidence bolsterer/voice of dissent. It's not the basis of the forecast, nor should it be for anyone.

11 summers I have ben doing this blog and this is the first without so much as a mention of the tropics, which means there were 0.00 viable major US threats.

Yes, absolutely....more ways to skin a cat, so to speak, in New England.

Yea, I don't see much of an argument for an exceedingly warm season...obviously the CC elephant in the room should provide the impetus for pause before going exceedningly cold, but most should have a fighting chance this year.

Yea, AO and EPO are non-starters if they are hostile. NAO is icing on the cake and more of an insurance element against "what could go wrong".

Sign me up for that pattern...while not a KU cookbook, that looks ripe for ample overunning and redevelopment with cold loaded in se Canada. Yes.