40/70 Benchmark

Wanted to share this great learning opportunity because it ruined what would have otherwise been an exemplary forecast. Its easy to forget that H7 fronto is simply a snapshot within the atmosphere, and that the coveted cross hair sig usually aligns with the SGZ region to the NW of max H7 fronto, since it slants NW to SE throughout the column with heights....as does low pressure (unless it is stacked). Super Bowl Sunday Snowfall Verification Here is the Final Call issued on Saturday, as a point of reference: versus reality: A Case of Misdiagnosed Frontogenesis The forecast was generally accurate, however, there was one glaring oversight that detracts a great deal from the overall forecast because involves the very heaviest band. The heaviest band of 8-12" extending from southwest of Boston down through northwest RI and NE CT was the result of an intense area of frontogensis that was misdiagnosed. Although the forecast did incorporate this: What was neglected was the fact that the band of heavy snow usually extends to the northwest of maximum area of 700mb frontogenesis due to the way that it is slanted vertically throughout the atmospheric column, including the snow growth region. Thus the heaviest band of snowfall should have extended just to the north of the highlighted area of frontogenesis, which is precisely where the band happen to align. The fact that this band extended further to the northwest than forecast entailed that these very heavy snows also fell into slightly colder air, which resulted in a narrow band of 8-12", whereas the forecast 4-8" fell further to the south. This was a very large mistake that resulted in 3-6" being forecasted for that swath of real estate that was most heavily impacted with 8-12" in a very short amount of time. Thus the overall grade still suffers, despite an otherwise nearly flawless forecast. Final Grade: C

Good.

+4" 43"

4"...exactly as expected.

Not done yet...

3.5" here. Should hit 4"+

How much did you get Monday night?

Congrats on getting the Monday event on Sunday.

#PORKED

Yup, I get it.

Nice. I'll be happy with 4".

Yea, I went similar for First...

I'm fine with today....I don't always need a jack. I just want to know its a legit possibility while I track, if that makes sense...

Yes, but hopefully not a HECS next wknd.

Yea, I'm gone thursday PM to Monday night.

Well, glad you guys down south got redemption.

Trying to help wife get the baby ready to go a bday last night, while I was doing it. That isn't why; not making excuses. I just wasn't as attentive as I should have been.

I can't believe I missed that band to the north. Rookie mistake....in my haste to bang out that Final Call, I forgot that the band extends north of the best fronto.

I have about 2.75". Should make a run at 4", as its really coming down. About as expected-

Dude, please do what you can to hold the big fish back until the 17th...

30.2 About 3/4 of an inch

First Call for Tuesday, and and brief overview of Friday potential. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/02/stormy-week-ahead-tuesday-first-call.html

Steve missed on the Jan 2011 call, but he looks good for Feb 94....this def. looks like a very cold pattern with a slew of moderate overrunning deals, as opposed to big bombs. I was clearly wrong about Feb, as I didn't not see the major SSW coming at all. I though the PV would recover, so that is a game changer.

8-11" is the range for pre-event depth here....what was pure powder, since the CF never got here, is now absolute crust.....most common number is 10".

Agree.