40/70 Benchmark

Jan 8, 96 would be on this list if I had lived in Methuen, then.....but thankfully, I was in Wilmington.

My three most traumatic events are PD II (1 foot subby hole, surrounded by 2 foot reports), 12/5/03 (1 foot subby hole surrounded by 2-3' reports just 5 miles away), and the second event in Dec 1996, which did to me pretty much exactly what Dec 1992 did to Scott. I was sweating the R/S line headed into it. It started pounding heavy snow, and I have just had a good 6-8" in the first event....I'm thinking, "this is great, we're off...I'll have a great pack headed into the holidays". Then, bang...its pouring after 2" of slush, and I hear a report from the next town over in Billerica that its dumping paste with 5". A few hours later I see Cantore spontaneously ejaculate amid the glow of lighting on camera, and the etching of an eternal scar was complete.

Its worth it to see what you did in 2015....I'd take 10 March 2001 and Dec 1992 episodes for that, if I were you.

That is one of a handful of posts I have ever seen you make that didn't include a question mark lol

We have been generally lucky, regionally, but your area takes to another level.

I will bet you that we get at least one widespread warning event between 1/20 and 2/1. Name your price and criteria...

I agree with you on that....same for Wilmington and Methuen. Its a decent spot to live if you want to do generally decently and avoid getting skunked often, but prime forcing can be pretty elusive. Very low elevation, and the CF is usually significantly east, which can lead to subsidence between low level forcing to the east, and mid levels to the west (see 12/17). It is often nearby in Wilmington, but the residence time is not what it is along the n shore. You need to really luck out with the mid levels to jackpot, or have a hugger that pins the cf a bit inland for a while. The area is also just far enough north to miss the best lift with the juggernauts, like Feb 78.

I'd be utterly shocked if we didn't get at least a decent storm or two, like Will said.

Agree. I would give anything to somehow erect like 1000' hill in my area.....the terrain enhancement on that moist NE flow during storms would be awesome. I would know its more with an entire range, but it would be nice with the CF included and what not.

East slopes are the best for deep layer easterly events.

If you do the south shore, do that area from Weymouth to Norwell....really underrated area, as its quite the OES snowbelt. If you are coming out my way, get near I 495.....No closer to the ocean than W Billerica, N Tewksbury.....if you had to do the N shore, do Peabody, Salem or Danvers.

@WinterWolf......the resident weather coach lol

I think in the big picture, it will essentially be climo snowfall for much of the region....or even a bit below, but looks like a fun stretch, hopefully. It looks like from 1/21 to about 1/25 is the apex of the pattern, thereafter the EPO ridge and NAO block retrograde.....I think the time to watch for a big ticket item is in that 1/25 to 2/1 time frame. Before 1/25, its probably more overrunning and late bloomers, and after 2/1 its more SWFE or rain.

Hr 252, 12z on 1/22 on the EPS is about as close a replica to the Jan 2011 pattern as you will ever see.

Agree...this is often the case, regardless, but especially with an RNA....if you are going to score a HECS, then it will come during a period of mass flux, like Jan 2011. I would have to look more closely, but probably Feb 1969, too....although that block was so obscene, so maybe it was an exception.

I'm one of the first ones to mock a pattern if I don't think its legit, but this one is. Def. don't see a protracted stretch of the highly favorable regime....about 10 days, at most, so we will need to capitalize.

I'm very confident this drought period is about to end....doesn't have to mean Jan 2011, but we should at least get some interesting events... and the potential is there for a big score.

If you're having winter problems I feel bad for you son, we got 99 pages and snowfall on none...I got the strat patrol, on the block patrol...fools that wanna make sure H5 is closed. Subby critics and defamation hoes..I'm from Methuen, stupid, where it never snows.. I'm like, fu$k the EPO, over Alaska is a black hole. When I grew up it was wet, but now its dry and all I got is a Pacific jet. I got 99 problems and cold ain't one.

I make snowfall a focal point of my outlooks.

My analog composite had quite a robust signal for blocking in March, but my forecast was more conservative....I gotvspooked by the QBO, intensity of la nina, and the tendency for mate blocking to delay until spring of late....like last year, which burned me.

Cohen expects this SSW event to evolve like 2013 and 2018....we can pray.

Verified.

I'm pumped.

You or one of the other three interested posters should start a thread...its inside 5 days.

All you....pass.