40/70 Benchmark

He uses ECMWF, too...

I thought there was arctic air around for that? I was in the teens when it began, so it was a decent airmass.

This.

GFS and GEM did, too....GFS was a few days ago. Again, I never took it seriously, but just saying...

I understand that, but that was still well over a foot around here on Monday from the capture.

No....there was some guidance showing like 20" in e MA.

That was a nice burst last night....I'm a sucker for great SGZ. Hit 39.7 and its just about gone.

I'd rather have my daughter do it.

There was some guidance showing a blockbuster, but I agree that it was never really viable.

Answers my earlier question...I'd rather see the GFS do that, than the EURO.

I'm sure @ORH_wxman can hep me here....name the January events that dropped widespread 20"+ over a relatively large area without a true arctic airmass....probably a fairly short list.

Seen folks talking about truly upper echelon potential......you need arctic air around to achieve that, at least in January, anyway....I'm not referring to just temps and I don't necessarily mean P-Type issues. Its tough to pull off a true upper tier systems in mid January without arctic air. You have more margin for error at peak climo with respect to temps and reasonably large systems....but good luck pulling widespread 20"+ in mid January without arctic air. I'm not complaining about it...just stating an opinion.

It certainly helps.

I've been out all day.....is guidance shifting the blocking south of Greenland?

Sign me up.

Agree...snow map will under do mid levels a bit.

I take that.

I think 10-15"...I got 11".

I pegged my spot for subsidence in the 12/17 event the whole week leading up to it...not sure what you are smoking.

I would not at all be suprised if the NAO is overdone later in January....we need to watch for that. I actually think the PAC should start to improve, though.

I'd take my spot over Kevin's.

No.

If the lift is there, so won't the snow.