Best western look we have had in weeks, which is why I was originally hopeful for that one, but the busy N stream and the Pac kicker displacing the ridge east are killing us.
This is one of the reasons mod la nina seasons do not produce many big events for us. I know you aren't a fan of generalizing seasons based off of ENSO, but when you have one big second half in nearly 100 years of data, there are probably reasons why.
My hopes, and probably even the pike region, ride on 1/29 to avoid one of the worst January months in history.
I sit at 2" on the month....only worse years are 1962, 1969, 1980 (futility season), and 1992.
Not feeling it, dude. We missed the boat IMO. Next week is our shot to hop aboard, but if next week goes awry, which is more likely than not, then I would hope to approach climo at best.
I actually think spring may be decent this year bc we are getting the blocking during the winter for once (I know, big help). It should break up over the next month.