40/70 Benchmark

Agree.

Hey @Isotherm, why is it that this article views the SSW as major, and you do not? Thanks.

Not sure I buy the antecedent pattern being a big deal going into the SSW....sure, a good pattern already in place can't hurt, but look at Feb 2018...it was like 60-70 all month, then all hell broke loose.

Exactly. That is the potential monkey wrench in the warm Feb idea....could be like a Feb 2001, or Feb 96.

Too bad every SSW wasn't like Feb 2018.

I assume you preordered an ebook for Megan as a xmas gift?

The SSW is going to eat us all

Euro was close.

Calling for a mid month cutter following the next two whiffs will certainly do just that.

I just feel like while the long wave trough is great, the timing of the shortwaves is just off for our area. They blow up either west of us or east of us.

Looking at the EPS, I still notice that annoying tendency for waves to dampen out as they approach our longitude. Next real shot looks to be on 1/16, or thereabouts.

Yep. Definitely....the track nuances have nothing to do with the larger scale point.

Speaking to Will's point, I was saying yesterday that if we end up netting a big fish out of this, it will probably be with relatively little lead time, as was the case in Jan 2015. The northern stream has a penchant for doing that.

1-3 above normal. Its because I make verbal tweaks to the analog composite.

If you can invoke a Jan 2015 or Fe 2015 event, I'll pay someone to carve a statue of @Ginx snewx and his dogs in a snowbank.

Could have been worse....again, the PNA will kill my temp anomalies across a lot of the nation, though. January Forecast Temperature Composite: Temperatures should be near normal to 1 degree above across northern New England, 1-3 degrees above normal in central and southern New England, and 2-3 degrees above in the mid atlantic. Any storm activity will entail large precipitation type issues near the coast, with the most snow reserved for northern New England. The RNA pattern should only strengthen, as overall storm activity wanes. January Forecast Precipitation Composite: A lull in winter for the northeast, especially below the latitude of northern New England and east of New York state, should develop during the month, as storms becomes less frequent and the predominate track shifts inland. Some seasonal cold bouts should be sufficient for some mountain snow, and perhaps some "front end" wintery precipitation further to the south.

I'll bet it's close, though.

At least my January lull call has worked out. We are going at least a month between major events.

Not doubting the potential one bit moving forward, but I'm seeing a about a three week period beginning on 1/15 that is likely to define this winter. Heading into it with innumerable bundles of energy is not optimal IMHO. Maybe it works out, and I hope it does. This looks to me like a high stakes pattern that will either deliver a truly high end event(s), or less than what most are expecting.

Very true.

Not sure what happened, think I accidentally deleted that last post. Lol Anyway, yea.....sick to death of the hype and waiting. Its mid winter and I've had one warning event. Anthony didn't do anything wrong, but I'm just done with the "240hr Euro was close", at this point. At least add some analysis. Its not like I personally insulted him, so some need to grow a pair.

Piss off-

There are 903 SWs in the flow at any given time, so every run is "close"...no one cares unless it's inside 5 days. Keep that crap in the NYC thread. It's like seeing a brick in basketball, and consoling yourself about how "close" it was....90% of the bricks are close; who cares.

I still think Feb will turn unfavorable....if I'm wrong, I'm wrong....its me painting myself into a corner, not you.

Likewise.