40/70 Benchmark

You're thinking cutter on that? One thing I didn't like is that the EPS runs H5 pretty far north, but at this range, it isn't a non-starter.

The trick is that its getting more difficult to muster the arctic air necessary for maxing fronto. We had it in that December event thanks to the neg EPO excursion.

Thankfully, my focus is the NE because I blew the PNA and EPO in the first half, which killed my national temp outlook. I nailed the arctic and atlantic, though...so that has saved me locally.

It will probably be north of me, but those front enders may stack up more here near the NH border, than say CT and RI.

I may be in the minority, and perhaps I would feel differently if I lived to be 123, but count me in on the global warming trade off from the perspective of a mid latitude winter fan. I'm okay with radiating to +3 instead of 0 in mid January, and melting a bit faster on average if its also falling faster. I mean....okay, every single season is now a top 3 warmest on record globally due to warm nights over Antartica, but mother nature has opened up a HECS drive through over the past 25 years. I can deal. Hopefully by my 123rd birthday, I'm blind, so I won't see the bare ground, anyway.

I agree, but don't count out March for something.

Right, there is a natural progression for la nina to become more westerly and canonical as the season progresses, which is likely in part why climo has them front loaded for snow fans. This season is no different. If you like winter in the east, then you want la nina east-based, and el nino west-based....keep the warmest anomalies away from the eastern regions, near the S American coast.

I think the idea that we would have this huge second half due to collapsing la nina was fraudulent, anyway given the atmospheric lag. A big second half in a la nina season is all about the poles, which are more likely to be favorable when it peaks relatively weak. Folks need to hope that the SSW is strong enough to protract the blocking because that is the only thing that can save Feb, and I don't think it will happen.

1 & 3 are saving the asses of mid latitude winter fans by compensating for #2.

1) I would be absolutely stunned if this winter went rat. 2) I expect the vast majority of February to be pretty shitty from about the latitude of SNE points south. Thus I feel pretty confident that we will begin to avail of this pattern after mid month (hate saying ides because I feel like I'm either 80 or Tip). I will be pretty surprised if most of the region does end up with a good 20"+ of snowfall between Jan 15 and about Feb 5.

I agree with Scott....next week is gone. Immerse yourself in football, family and work because an investment in weather next over the next 7 days is a week of your life that you will never get back. I am cautiously optimistic about 1/16-1/17. The really fun and meaningful model watching may begin in earnest about mid week next week.

Tom, same page...that is the rationale that is utilized in the outlook back on 11/5. While I would like us to verify, I would also like a February 2015 redux, so forgive me for being a bit torn. lol I feel as though even if we are correct about February, there could still be a substantial phase change event early in the month. @LibertyBell I am also with Tom as to having some hope for March...hopefully its not like last season where the it happens too late.

Agree.

Carol.

No...it was a SNE HECS, Cleveland Super Bomb, SNE BECS.

I was gonna say, but didn't care enough...

I have been saying that 1/16 to 1/17 is the first bonafide threat.

Watch it pull a 1978.....January 26, 1978-

You wonder if long range guidance refusing to ever avail of a great pattern in any of the runs is actually a good sign...

Please keep us posted

Yea, I was suprised, too....I only had a coating on Jan 8, then 20.5" Jan 12, 5" Jan 18, 1" Jan 19, 8.5" Jan 21, .5" Jan 25, 12.5" Jan 26-27, 13.5" Feb 1-2, 2" Feb 7-8

I have always been in your camp that the PV recovers in Feb, but Cohen is saying this is indeed a major event by definition.

I've seen him online, but nothing to really post about.

Looking back at my records, Jan 2011 didn't really get going until the blizzard on the 12th....seasonal totals were pretty comparable to right now. Still time....again, I'm betting against a repeat of that, but the big tickets are unlikely to really show before 3-5 days lead time.

Gotta love how everyone has mourned the scarcity of the NAO over the past several years, now we have it for a month and a half and it's netted one warning event that still deposited the very heavy snows well north and inland. Lol