40/70 Benchmark

Yea, it will be mundane here. No doubt.

I would be fine with 07-08 in my hood. Probably 85-90" here. I had 73.5" in Wilmington...

How do you explain 2004 and 2014 acting like "typical" weak el nino events?

It definitely underperformed relative to consensus forecasts. I, along with many others here, never expected much.

I don't think the rain will whiff this time.. wind will underperform, sure.

I was wondering what pickles was talking about.

Looks like a huge storm....but I don't really care for two reasons: 1) Its October. 2) Thankfully its October because the track blows. Looks like its for real, though. Better than nothing...

Great job. Although last winter was actually pretty snowy across NNE.

Exactly.

I get that...we have plenty of Miller Bs analagous to 1978, but unless sensible impact will be comparable, I don't see the value. To the contrary, it creates alot of unnecessary hype from the ill informed masses (not you).

3 possession loss....sloppy game.

The analogy should be laughed at, regardless of where it tracked. This is simply not as anomalous.

PERFECT STORM!!!

Its a pretty standard occurence for the majority of folks.

The "Perfect Storm" idiots were my favorite.

Those who are dissapointed should only be dissapointed in themselves.

Thank you so very much lol

You should throw up the pic of me that scooter is obsessed with over Methuen lol

Raindance, I have garnered alot of respect for your methodology over the past year, but I'm a bit confounded as to how you interpret a weak el nino as an unfavorable development for NE winter. I get that you weigh solar very heavily, but betting against NE winter in a weak modoki el nino, if that does indeed materialize, is a risky proposition. We'll see...maybe you will nail it. You certainly know your stuff. Anyway, four of the six seasons that you mentioned featured above average snowfall in Boston...of course, 1994 and 2018 were awful. 2007 was epic in CNE and NNE. 2004 was epic in the Boston area, 2009 epic in mid atl. 1994 is actually good ENSO match, but its going to fall out of favor if the eastern ENSO regions don't spike a great deal this month.

No. Modoki is best for mid atl and sne, but good everywhere. Mod is better for mid atl, weak sne.

I haven't seen anything from him yet...

I totally agree.

This was raindancewx's response last week, but he is about ready to give up on neutral now.

I'd have to look back...I think 1994 was actually the best match, but the eastern regions were warming quickly by now. Anyway, 3.4 is what matters, and its about +0.5 now..

I think it would be good for winter as a whole, but it could mean a slower start, too. But el nino is far from a given, as Will said. My point last week was just that it remains a plausibility.