40/70 Benchmark

That looks like a neutral to even a modestly neg NAO to me...

None of the BS we had last season...we need to settle on a date and time to discuss what should be a decently wintery month of December. Oops.. sneak preview of outlook? We should do Monday 12/16, Friday 12/20, or Saturday 12/21, since Monday 12/23 isn't an option because Will usually melts if its too close to the holiday.

That looks favorable to me.

Yea, not buying a slow start....have had my mind made up on that.

Within a week...

Seen @Isotherm lurking of late.....tis the season.

I know.

She knows, by this point..

Doesn't matter to me.

I always release on Nov 12.

11-12 for me. Isotherm next week.

Yes.

I will always be a little bitter about last season...one of my top analogs was 1968-1969, as the MEI was very low that year, too. Snow stake records, etc. Had I not missed the dearth of blocking, I would have nailed it....but I didn't, and I whiffed.

Yea, the SSW providing the impetus for tremendous PV recovery coupled with a stagnant MJO doomed any prospect for second half blocking until............spring.

People also lose sight of the fact that it was a pretty damn impressive year about 150mi nw of here.....this wasn't 2001-2002.

Having insight into the fact that the consensus forecast for a big winter last year failed is one thing, but claiming that there were no data to support such an outcome in the first place is incorrect.

Right...it was just so immensely frustrating that people treat it like one. Losing by one every night can be perceived as badly or worse than getting blown out with regularity.

Good luck this year. I have really come to appreciate your work and have learned a great deal from it. I do not expect a blockbuster in Boston, so we agree there.

Bottom line is none of us have a great grasp on the ling range.

I would love some early season love..off from work until 12/9 starting tonight.

Shift last season a bit se, and it would have been good. It has incorrectly gotten associated with some pretty awful seasons by people staring at the KBOS seasonal total on an excel file....but it really was not like those years. Don't get me wrong..consensus forecast of banner year bombed, but it was not an awful pattern...more a serviceable pattern during which southern New England was snake bitten.

I disagree. 1) Things do not look bad. 2) "Ratter" implies a pretty anomalously bad outcome, which is never "50/50..its like declaring a 50/50 shot that Boston sees 100". Always silly.

I agree regarding CPC potentially missing the boat on the late nino, but it will be close. Not sure I agree that a weak el nino will be worse for Boston, but it should be marginal and relatively late, so probably won't make a huge difference either way. I don't understand the logic behind the idea of low solar being bad for snow around here....doesn't mean its definitely wrong, but until I wrap my mind around causation, any statistical evidence is chaos due to sample size imo. I know some of the seasons in your data set, like 2010, could have easily played out much better snowfallwise. Even 2007 had a pretty big ending not too far north.

February 2007, 1995 and 2010 are all patterns that I would take another roll of the dice with, though.