40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I think in the big picture, it will essentially be climo snowfall for much of the region....or even a bit below, but looks like a fun stretch, hopefully. It looks like from 1/21 to about 1/25 is the apex of the pattern, thereafter the EPO ridge and NAO block retrograde.....I think the time to watch for a big ticket item is in that 1/25 to 2/1 time frame. Before 1/25, its probably more overrunning and late bloomers, and after 2/1 its more SWFE or rain.
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Hr 252, 12z on 1/22 on the EPS is about as close a replica to the Jan 2011 pattern as you will ever see.
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Agree...this is often the case, regardless, but especially with an RNA....if you are going to score a HECS, then it will come during a period of mass flux, like Jan 2011. I would have to look more closely, but probably Feb 1969, too....although that block was so obscene, so maybe it was an exception.
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I'm one of the first ones to mock a pattern if I don't think its legit, but this one is. Def. don't see a protracted stretch of the highly favorable regime....about 10 days, at most, so we will need to capitalize.
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I'm very confident this drought period is about to end....doesn't have to mean Jan 2011, but we should at least get some interesting events... and the potential is there for a big score.
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If you're having winter problems I feel bad for you son, we got 99 pages and snowfall on none...I got the strat patrol, on the block patrol...fools that wanna make sure H5 is closed. Subby critics and defamation hoes..I'm from Methuen, stupid, where it never snows.. I'm like, fu$k the EPO, over Alaska is a black hole. When I grew up it was wet, but now its dry and all I got is a Pacific jet. I got 99 problems and cold ain't one.
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January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormlover74's topic in New York City Metro
I make snowfall a focal point of my outlooks. -
My Winter Outlook 2020-21
40/70 Benchmark replied to Isotherm's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
My analog composite had quite a robust signal for blocking in March, but my forecast was more conservative....I gotvspooked by the QBO, intensity of la nina, and the tendency for mate blocking to delay until spring of late....like last year, which burned me. -
Cohen expects this SSW event to evolve like 2013 and 2018....we can pray.
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Verified.
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I'm pumped.
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You or one of the other three interested posters should start a thread...its inside 5 days.
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All you....pass.
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Bottom line is that I have had the same small bankings in tact since xmas, regardless of what the anomaly is....there has been no excessive warmth and minimal melting....weak sun and upper 30's for the most part.
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I didn't mean reasonably cold as in avg or below anomalies....I meant that its been cold enough for minor melting over an extended period. I knew someone would say this.
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Thos anomalies are due to nights for the most part...days haven't been that warm.
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Just me, but I'd be even more pissed without that one event.
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I was thinking today.....if the grinch didn't vaporize the snowpack leading into this stretch, then it wouldn't have been as bad....its been seasonably cold ever since.
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No.....hardly any snow from 12/17 to Jan 20+ would still piss people right the F off
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I figured it has something to do with terrain, but scooter saying they got slammed at sea level threw me off...convergence explains that.
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Why is their OES so prolific?
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Exactly my point.
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2019 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to AfewUniversesBelowNormal's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Glad I never bought into the strong La nina hype...I had it peaking NDJ anywhere from -1.3 to -1.5c -
I mean...how many people changed their minds about how badly Dec 2014 sucked? Lol
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They seemed to hang onto a bit of NAO, too, which shows how warm it could get if that PV really get its ass back together.
