40/70 Benchmark
-
Posts
72,360 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
-
I know that, but its not like its block displaced to the south, as was the issue earlier this season. Literally speaking, its technically the 50/50 low..I guess you could move the NAO block even further north, but then you are risking a later transfer. Pattern is flawed, but it can work.
-
Yea, I will take the suppression risk because the alternative is a non-starter SWFE or even rainer...I get it.
-
I think the 50/50 low is more of a problem than the NAO block....
-
This month is what January 2011 would have looked like had it tried to read one of Tip's posts through to the end.
-
Compromise of the EURO and GFS would be good.
-
Posts aren't about the stupid 16-17 event....that's all I'm not invested in.
-
Like the GFS, its doesn't redevelop fast enough.
-
Man, I haven't see @dryslot this distraught quite possibly ever. You even so much as reference a favorable modeling scenario, and he chucks one at you lol
-
The parent low to the north is from the original energy, but the NAO block, 50/50 low forces the energy to transfer to the south. The GFS does it late in the game for us, so you see the closed H5 low still waaaay north, as the surface tries to get going south of NE.....if you loop the run, they will eventually stack out near the maratimes. We want that to happens faster to the south of LI.
-
This looks like a pattern of energy dumping west due to the RNA, the the NAO block forcing coastal redevelopment. Should be more favorable the further NE one is....late bloomer. GFS looks like more SWFE because they don't get going soon enough, but not important, right now.
-
GFS needs significant adjustments with the 1/23 event to be a big deal for SNE...which doesn't matter at this range, I know.
-
I feel like the EURO is a lot more intriguing for that 1/23 threat than the GFS and Canadian suites.
-
Last night's GEM looked awful...yikes.
-
I wish that N steam would be a little more aggressive....
-
Like me in the fall. I would have checked for a while, but I have too much down time at work these days lol
-
The redevelopment is in its infancy.....the surface low will show up south of NE over the next few frames.
-
He did not explicitly say that...I just may have interpreted incorrectly. He did imply that the 1/23 system is unlikely to get up here....squashed by the huge 50/50.
-
I don't know.....PD II was good here..I just got mesoporked. Same thing with Jan-Feb 1994. You think of any?
-
I kind of got the impression looking at DT's video that he is favoring a great overrunning pattern for the SE and mid Atl, but not so much up this way.
-
P Sunny in Chelsea
-
Yup. Late 90s barely missed bc of April Fool's Blizzard.
-
I will say that if we do end up with below normal snow this season, which I think is slightly greater than a 50/50 shot, then I will need pretty overwhelming evidence to not go above normal snow next season. My area has only posted four consecutive below average snowfall seasons once since 1956.
-
I know....I would root against it if I were you provided that you were confident of a -EPO. Neg EPO/+NAO if your most prolific set up IMO....problem is that I don't think we will keep a neg EPO, so you may want to hope the blocking lingers like the rest of us and take your chances lol
-
Its not perfect, but the most accurate representation.
-
Luck is involved in everything.....sports included. Its one thing to acknowledge it, and another to use it as an excuse for a busted forecast.
