40/70 Benchmark

That PV lobe wants no part of phasing...flow is just too fast with no western heights.

Slick....I though they were terd seasons.

I actually wouldn't...I know it won't happen, but my hope would be that it would become viable enough where talk about it could be quarantined to another thread.

I have nothing resembling hope for anything within the forecast range, and its already been over a month since the only significant event.......past two Januarys, ZERO warning events.

Do you hate to see it?

Times are tough when we resort to a game of "name that terd" at H5 in the main winter thread.

Which year is that? Couple issues I see are the east-based NAO and low SW heights. I can see why that would go awry....

You're smoking some potent shit if you would have guessed that is my worst winter on record. I suppose that you also would have guessed that the mid atl had above average snowfall..

I'll have my own clean car bubble....filth all around.

We'll see......GFS seems pretty emphatic that the main vortex will settle in Canada after the second split, which is what took place in 2018.

I get it.....snow squalls should have a thread, especially with nothing else going on. I can honestly say that I enjoyed seeing flurries yesterday, even though it didn't accumulate.

Enjoy the snow for who gets it...apparently I'm a dick for suggesting a thread for what many deem to be a noteworthy event in a dull pattern.

Cranky old man. I'm not sure why that is such a ludicrous suggestion...."give a crap" was his word; not mine.

Raise your hand if you would have guessed that I had under 20" of snowfall this season.....sometimes shit just happens.

This season is like the cold ENSO version of 1979-1980. That was my futility season....on paper, you would have never guessed that.

Obviously the inherent caveats with the extended lead, blah, blah, blah, but all three ensemble packages are pretty insistent that everything through the first week of February misses south....if that has wavered at all, then I missed it. I could't care any less about a NYC n edge, as opposed to Trenton.

It goes both ways.....people over attribute successful regimes to the NAO, and assign too much culpability when things go awry. At the end of the day, the atmosphere is a fluid system and nothing is independent.

Start a thread for those who give a crap.

Yea, that just exacerbates the aforementioned issues.

Should be a thread for that IMO.

Regardless of the pattern or state of any index, at the end of the day you need the shortwave dust to settle favorably, and it has not. This pattern has been flawed, but it very easily could have been a good stretch with one break or two. I don't think the NAO had anything to do with the fact that the southwest energy has always ejected at the most inopportune times, and the shortwave spacing has always been unfavorable...much of the latter is due to la nina IMO......active train of Pacific SWs increases the chances of having wave spacing be a prevalent problem throughout the season. Of course, now we have a pretty stout and static RNA, which makes it very difficult for the N stream to amplify in the east.

I think the elevating heights in the vicinity of the rockies could make a diff. for 1/29..if that verifies. Its been consistent.

This suppressed period definitely has a finite shelf life...that is not the concern.

Heh.....catch is I didn't quantify-

I could see it perhaps impacting south of the pike, but I have a very hard time buying significant snowfall up my way from that. Like I said, I think she gone for siggy snow beyond s coast, LI and NYC, though.