40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I have mused about that.....you wonder if the atmosphere kind of expends that bottled up energy in spurts.
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That isn't news.
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I don't care what happens moving forward, that one month plus blew some of the deadest rats imaginable.
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Sure you can, its just more difficult to get huge events due to flow compression. It can certainly happen, though....Jan 2011 and Fen 1969.
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Exactly...thought so.
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2018.
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I mentioned that, too....I think we just need a reshuffling. Track and evolutionary timeline of low pressure areas is unfavorable for us.
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Like I said earlier, without that NAO block, this is January-February 2019.
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Beat me to it...
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Jan 2011 storm took place during the transition from -NAO/PNA to +NAO/PNA. I think the west coast ridging was more later in the month.
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I know how important the PNA is for major east coast winter storms, but I will take that trade given the hand we were dealt....awful blend of cold deficit and suppression. Get me the cold supply and activity, and I'll take my chances with track nuances...especially given NAO.
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Feb 2010...Jan 1996
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That is a Jan 2011 look.
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Not bad...
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March was good south of the pike....it sucked up here. Cold and dry...epic pack just slowly fossilized and eroded under the strengthening March sun.
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Epic PNA/EPO aided cross polar flow.
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Quick update on the pattern moving forward..... https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/01/mid-month-pattern-change-signals-active.html
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It hasn't been more than 8 degrees from freezing in Boston since Christmas.
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We still need to see how long the neg NAO/AO remains.....I still feel like it goes in February, but we'll see.
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Pretty poor winter here, but with a neg NAO, probably better here and not as good there.
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I think the GEFS look best next week, followed by the GEPS and of course, the most accurate EPS third. They are all decent, though.
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This is pretty much 2018-2019 with an NAO.
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Bad timing....the block fades a bit before redeveloping.
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I know given the antecedent frustration, there are many who will be disenfranchised that we may not see an ideal pattern, but I can tell you that I will gladly trade the PNA for a negative EPO. IMHO, it is the PAC jet that has plagued this season. We are going to have cold around moving forward, and the storm track will not be suppressed. This is actually the pattern that I expected for the first half, but it took the Pacific awhile to cooperate and arrange accordingly.
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Not an ideal set up for a big one because that pattern can be prone to gradient saturation, but if you time things right, you can steal a big kahuna redeveloper.....worst case, it is an active look.
